Predictions for 2013 from University of Birmingham Academics

Posted on Friday 21st December 2012

A number of academics from across the University have offered their predications for 2013, including the Business School’s Dr James Reade from the Department of Economics.

Continuing the sporting theme from his research looking into "Implicit Discrimination in Football”, James offers his sporting predications for the year based on his research associated with betting prices and the relationship on forecasting future sporting events.

 My research has contributed to the generally accepted notion that betting prices, particularly those from betting exchanges like Betfair, provide the best forecasts for future sporting events. Hence, taking Betfair as a guide, Manchester United have become clear favourites to win the Premiership for the umpteenth time, whilst Reading, QPR and Southampton look likely to be relegated come May.

Following holder Chelsea’s embarrassing early exit from the Champions League, the markets do not seem to anticipate a British or German winner for 2013, but rather that a Spanish team will seize this prestigious crown.

In cricket, an English win at the 2013 ICC Champions Trophy looks unlikely, with punters seeming to favour India, Australia and South Africa.

In rugby, can England build on its surprise win against the All Blacks in 2013? England is joint favourite with France for the 2013 Six Nations, while in club rugby, Irish and French teams look most likely to take the Heineken Cup crown in 2013.

Can Andy Murray continue to go from strength to strength at the Australian Open in January? Djokovic is favourite with a 40% chance, but Murray is second favourite, with the markets giving him a 20% chance. Regardless of what happens it promises to be another exciting year of sport!

Read more predications for 2013 on a number of topics from academics across the University.