Global population growth, technology and Malthusian constraints: A quantitative growth theoretic perspective
- J G Smith building, Room 210
This presentation has been organised by the Centre for Environmental and Energy Economics and Management.
Speaker: Simon Dietz (LSE)
Simon Dietz is an environmental economist, mainly working on climate change, although he retains other interests such as biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. The usual themes are decision-making under uncertainty, questions of equity/social justice within and between generations, the links between economic growth and the environment, and international environmental agreements.
We structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous populationand finite land reserves to study the long-run evolution of global population, technologicalprogress and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectoriesfor world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth and crop land area from 1960 to 2010.Projections from 2010 onwards show a slowdown of technological progress, and, because it isa key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100 global populationreaches 12.4 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bindbecause of capital investment and technological progress.