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Expectations in Dynamic Macroeconomic Models

University of Birmingham
Lectures Talks and Workshops, Research, Social Sciences
Tuesday 7th (09:30) - Thursday 9th August 2018 (16:00)
Download the date to your calendar (.ics file)

Kaushik Mitra:

This conference will be hosted by the University of Birmingham from 7-9 August 2018 in the Alan Walters Building (R29 on the campus map). The local organising committee for this event consists of Kaushik Mitra and Pei Kuang. The conference hotel is in Birmingham city centre. The conference hotel is Malmaison which is located in the Birmingham city centre (see information below). Conference dinner will take place in the conference hotel.

Conference programme

7 August 2018 

9:30: Seppo Honkapohja, (Aalto University School of Business), Kaushik Mitra, (University of Birmingham)
Price Level Targeting with Evolving Credibility
Discussant: Bruce McGough (University of Oregon)

10:30: Peter Jorgensen (Lund University), Kevin Lansing (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
Inflation Puzzles in the New Keynesian Model: The Implications of Anchored Expectations
Discussant: Fabian Winkler (Federal Reserve Board)

11:30: Coffee break

12:00: Ricardo Masolo (Bank of England), Francesca Monti (Bank of England)
Ambiguity, Monetary Policy and Trend Inflation 
Discussant: Tongbin Zhang (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

13:00: Lunch

14:00: Martin Ellison (University of Oxford), Andreas Tischbirek (University of Lausanne)
Beauty Contests and the Term Structure
Discussant: Julian Kozlowski (New York University)

15:00: Wei Cui (University College London), Leo Kaas (Goethe University Frankfurt)
Default Cycles
Discussant: Christoph Gortz (University of Birmingham)

16:00: Coffee break

16:30 - 17:30: Keynote #1: Michael Woodford (Columbia University)
Monetary Policy Analysis when Planning Horizons are Finite

19:00: Conference dinner (By Invitation Only)
Dinner Speech: James Bullard (President and CEO of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Day)

8 August 2018

9:00: Ryan Chahrour (Boston College), Kyle Jurado (Duke University)
Discussant: Bruce McGough, University of Oregon

10:00: Julian Kozlowski (New York University), Laura Veldkamp (New York University), Venky Venkateswaran (New York University)
The Tail that Keeps the Riskless Rate Low
Discussant: In-Koo Cho (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

11:00: Coffee break

11:30: Pablo Guerron-Quintana (Boston College), Tomohiro Hirano (University of Tokyo), Ryo Jinnai (Hitotsubashi University)
Recurrent Bubbles, Economic Fluctuations, and Growth
Discussant: Aditya Goenka (University of Birmingham)

12:30: George Evans (University of Oregon and University of St Andrews), Christopher Gibbs (University of New South Wales), Bruce McGough (University of Oregon)
A Unified Model of Learning to Forecast
Discussant: Wei Xiao (Binghamton University)

13:30: Lunch

14:30: William Branch (University of Carlifornia), Irvine Emanuel Gasteiger (Freie Universität Berlin)
Endogenously (Non-)Ricardian Beliefs
Discussant: George Evans (University of Oregon and University of St Andrews)

15:30: Pei Kuang (University of Birmingham), Kaushik Mitra (University of Birmingham)
Potential Output Pessimism and Austerity in the European Union
Discussant: William Branch (University of California, Irvine)

16:30: Coffee break

17:00 - 18:00: Keynote #2: Klaus Adam (University of Mannheim)
Leaning Against Housing Prices as Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy

9 August 2018

9:00: Colin Caines (Federal Reserve Board), Fabian Winkler (Federal Reserve Board)
Asset Price Learning and Optimal Monetary Policy
Discussant: Pei Kuang (University of Birmingham)

10:00: Renbin Zhang (Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona), Tongbin Zhang (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)
Understanding AH Premium in China Stock Market
Discussant: Marco Airaudo (Drexel University)

11:00: Coffee break

11:30: Paul Levine (University of Surrey), Joe Pearlman (City University, London), Bo Yang (Swansea University)
The Relationship between VAR and DSGE Models when Agents have imperfect information
Discussant: Stephen Wright (Birkbeck, University of London)

12:30: Marco Airaudo (Drexel University), Ina Hajdini (Drexel University)
Stochastic Consistent Expectations Equilibria in a Regime Switching Model of Inflation Determination
Discussant: Giulia Piccillo (Maastricht University)

13:30: Lunch

15:00-16:00: Speech: James Bullard (President and CEO of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy

16:00: Drinks Reception in Atrium, Alan Walters, University of Birmingham 

Conference Programme Committee

  • James Bullard, President and CEO of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
  • Bruce McGough, University of Oregon
  • Bruce Preston, University of Melbourne


The conference hotel Malmaison is conveniently located in the centre of Birmingham, only a few minutes walk from “New Street” train station. Getting to the University of Birmingham from Malmaison can be done either by taxi (ten minutes ride, about £7) or by taking the train from "New Street" to the “University” train station (6-9 minutes, £3.10 with return). 

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