Professor David Bailey regularly blogs on the UK in a Changing Europe website. Below is a list of his blog posts, with links and short descriptions.
UK auto: Covid-19 to hit industry harder than expected (1 April, 2020)
With the coronavirus epidemic and the lockdown hitting the economy hard, David Bailey examines specifically at the impacts on the automotive sector, looking at the likely short-term drop in production and the possible long-term negative effects.
Has Brexit helped business prepare for the coronavirus? (31 March, 2020)
In this blog, David Bailey looks at how previous planning and preparations for the shock of Brexit is now helping manufacturers and retailers deal with the supply chain disruptions due to the coronavirus epidemic and the government lockdown. He also looks at the limits of such preparations, and particularly reflects on the severe problems the automotive industry is facing.
Nissan investment boost eases some fears for UK car industry's future (for now) (11 March, 2020)
David Bailey talks about Nissan's decision to build the next Qashqai model in its Sunderland plant, but also cautions why, despite this good news, the auto industry is still facing problems due to the uncertainty about the final outcomes of the Brexit negotiations.
Minimum trade frictions will be vital for the UK automotive industry (25 February, 2020)
The blog explains why border frictions post-Brexit would be very damaging to the UK automotive industry, which is anyway facing a difficult period due to other factors.
The petrol and diesel ban: what sort of auto industry does the UK want after Brexit? (24 February, 2020)
David Bailey looks at the announced ban on petrol and diesel cars from 2035, explaining why there is no real plan on how to actually get there, focusing specifically on disjointed government policy aimed at increasing the uptake of electric vehicles and a lack of an industrial policy in the UK.
West Midlands transport industries and Brexit (6 February, 2020)
The blog gives an overview of a recent report that maps the supply chains in the automotive, rail and aerospace sectors in the West Midlands, as well as analyses their exposure to Brexit risks. (The report is also available on our website, here.)
Peugeot-Fiat merger - UK plants fear future (19 December, 2019)
Professor Bailey explains why mergers make sense in the car industry, including the now official Peugeot-Fiat one , due to the increasing costs of developing electric and driverless cars. However, he also explains why this merger puts at risk Vauxhall's operations in the UK, if the newly merged company looks to make cost savings.
A Brexit trade deal is vital for manufacturing (16 December, 2019)
This blog explains why Brexit at the end of January 2020 is not the end of Brexit uncertainty, but merely opens a new chapter of uncertainty about the outcomes of the Brexit negotiations, and why both the uncertainty itself and the final outcomes are of critical importance for UK manufacturing. In particular, Bailey explains why a bare-bones free trade agreement would still be problematic for UK manufacturers, and why it is unlikely that a fuller agreement could be reached by the end of 2020.
State aid after Brexit (12 December, 2019)
David Bailey looks at EU State Aid rules in this blog, and whether being bound by them post-Brexit would hamper UK attempts to boost UK manufacturing. He explains that there is much more scope to do industrial policy within the State Aid rules than consecutive UK governments have done, and that divergence on State Aid rules in Brexit negotiations would likely be a big sticking point.
Auto industry issues stark new warning on no deal Brexit (28 November, 2019)
In this blog, David Bailey reflects on why the auto industry is massively concerned about a no-deal Brexit, why the uncertainty about Brexit outcomes is already harming the industry, and on how a no-deal Brexit could lead to severe short-term and long-term negative impacts.
Brexit uncertainty means Tesla choose Germany for European new factory (19 November, 2019)
Coming after Tesla chose Germany for its new European factory, this blog explains why the UK was not chosen as the preferred location, looking at Brexit uncertainty and the low uptake of electric vehicles in the UK (among other things, due to low government support and limited charging infrastructure).
A Fiat Peugeot merger may be bad news for UK workers (31 October, 2019)
David Bailey explains why mergers in the car industry are necessary for companies to be able to deal with higher development costs of new models, and why the proposed Fiat Peugeot merger might be good for both companies. However, he also notes the risk of plant closures due to cost savings measures, notably Vauxhall's Ellesmere Port plant.
Nissan's no deal warning is no surprise - but even a Johsnon deal still offers challenges for UK auto (14 October, 2019)
Taking Nissan's Sunderland plant as the main example, David Bailey looks at why the company is very concerned about a no deal Brexit and particularly the potential tariffs on car exports to the EU, and explains why such considerations are of significance for all other car producers as well.
Auto makers prepare to shut down again fearing no deal Brexit disruption (27 September, 2019)
David Bailey explains in this blog why it is very difficult for automakers to prepare for a no deal Brexit, why this is very costly, and why they are choosing to temporarily shut down plants in anticipation of a crash out of the EU.
No deal preparations must be wide ranging (18 September, 2019)
This blog analyses how a no-deal Brexit would derail the just-in-time (JIT) supply chains in the UK automotive and other industries, why it would be difficult to overcome this problem, and what the government could do to mitigate such shocks.
PSA Group 'no deal means no investment' warning is no surprise (1 August, 2019)
In this blog, David Bailey explains why there is a real risk of PSA's deciding to close its Ellesmere Port plant due to Brexit uncertainty, and reflects on the wider problems in the UK automotive industry.
Good news for the UK car industry could be undone by a no-deal Brexit (6 July, 2019)
David Bailey talks about the PSA and JLR's announced investment into producing new car models in the UK, but also explains how, in PSA's case, this might be derailed by a no-deal Brexit.
Brexit and investment: a three year assessment (2 July, 2019)
Here, Professor David Bailey reflects on the general investment slump in the UK after the Brexit referendum and the business uncertainty that the repeated Brexit cliff-hangers have brought about.
UK car manufacturing slumps amidst Brexit uncertainty (31 May, 2019)
The blog looks at the costs of preparing for a no-deal Brexit, as well as the slump in car manufacturing and investment in the automotive sector that had already been brought about by the uncertainty over Brexit.