Blogs

Here you can find short descriptions and links to blog posts about the findings of the Changing Lanes project.

AM Online

AM Online is the UK's leading website for auto-industry related news to which David Bailey regularly contributes.

Auto industry hit from coronavirus could be double SMMT forecast (March 31, 2020)
David Bailey looks at SMMT estimates that UK car production will drop by around 200,000 vehicles in 2020 due to the coronavirus crisis, and argues that this already extremely serious hit is potentially an underestimate and a 'least worst' scenario. This is because there are significant uncertainties about what will happen to the demand for cars after the pandemic is over and how the supply chain will cope with the pandemic shutdown.

Government coronavirus measures must support automotive (March 20, 2020)
David Bailey gives an overview of the near shutdown of the UK car industry due to the coronavirus pandemic, which comes on top of the serious challenges that it was anyway facing (shift away from diesels and into electric vehicles, Brexit uncertainty, and declining sales in China). David Bailey argues for decisive action on the government's part to save the industry, which may suffer permanent damage during the shutdown, as suppliers go bankrupt, overseas buyers switch to different producers, or companies decide to consolidate production outside of the UK, sacrificing UK capacity.

2040, 2035, 2032... Government's petrol and diesel ban: policy on the hoof (February 18, 2020)
The blog looks at the government's plan to bring forward the ban on diesel and petrol cars. David Bailey explains in what ways the ban is not clear (for example, does it include plug-in hybrids?), and focuses on the need for a much more integrated industrial policy in order to both foster the uptake of electric vehicles among consumers and to help the UK car industry shift its production towards these vehicles. 

What next for UK car manufacturing after Brexit? (February 10, 2020)
In this blog, David Bailey analyses a 'perfect storm' that has hit the UK automotive sector - declining sales in China, Brexit uncertainty, and the technological shift away from diesel cars in the wake of Volkswagen's diesel scandal. He explains why, in this context (which has already reduced output, caused job losses, etc.) an orderly Brexit is of utmost importance.

Why a battery Gigafactory is key for UK automotive (January 15, 2020)
The automotive industry is undergoing a fundamental shift towards electric and driverless cars, with battery technologies playing a key role in this. In this context, David Bailey explains why a UK gigafactory for the production of car batteries would be essential for the continued competitiveness of the UK car industry. He further reflects what sort of industrial policy would be needed to support both the technological shift and the establishment of such a factory. 

Getting which Brexit done? A big deal for automotive (December 17, 2019)
Written after the Conservative win in the general election on December 12, 2019, this blog explains that while Brexit has become certain, there was still complete uncertainty about what form exactly it will take - whether there will be a no deal or, if there is a deal, what it will be. This uncertainty itself is already causing damage to various UK manufacturing sectors, and a no-deal Brexit would prove extremely disruptive to most of them.

Auto industry's stark new warning on No Deal Brexit (November 28, 2019)
David Bailey explains why the UK auto industry is highly dependent on frictionless trade with the EU, such as due to just-in-time supply chains, and why a no-deal Brexit will be highly disruptive to the sector and will certainly lead to decreased production, and likely to job losses and even plant closures.

Shaken not stirred? Aston Martin slumps to £13m loss (November 11, 2019)
David Bailey explains in this blog the drivers behind Aston Martin's losses - unexpectedly difficult trading conditions, Brexit uncertainty - but concludes that the firm will likely have to be acquired by a larger player sooner or later, similar to BMW's acquisition of Rolls-Royce and Volkswagen acquisition of Bentley, Lamborghini, and Porsche.

Business Live

Business Live is a news portal, focusing on UK economic regional issues that David Bailey regularly contributes to with blogs.

UK needs joined-up policy on EVs (February 19, 2020)
This blog reflects on the UK government decision to bring forward the ban on petrol and diesel cars to 2035. Bailey argues that switching to electric vehicles is a good move, but that what the measure entails is not completely clear, there is no integrated policy to support this move, and some of the government policies (such as cutting subsidies for electric vehicles) are actually going against this target.

Shaken not stirred? Aston Martin slumps to £13m loss (November 11, 2019)
David Bailey explores the difficult position that Aston Martin finds itself in, as it tries to develop new car models and move into the SUV market and deal with Brexit uncertainty. Merging with another company or being bought up would be one of the solutions, and a part of what has anyway again become a trend in the car industry towards market concentration.

Planes, trains and automobiles: What does Brexit mean for the West Midlands transport manufacturing sector? (October 14, 2019)
The blog gives an overview of the findings of the Regional Transport – a supply chain mapping exercise and Brexit exposure check of automotive, aerospace and rail value dependency in the WMCA region report. The central finding is that disruptions to trade in the event of a no-deal Brexit would be highly detrimental to these sectors, as they are structured in a way that his highly dependent on frictionless trade with the rest of the EU.

No Deal preparations must be wide ranging (September 17, 2019)
This blog provides details on the various negative impacts that Brexit will have on UK manufacturing, and in particular the UK automotive sector, and assesses what options exist for manufacturers to deal with these.

Jaguar eyeing EV future at Birmingham plant (July 2, 2019)
In this blog, David Bailey analyses JLR's decision to build its new electric car models in its Castle Bromwich plant, and also uses this as an example to reflect on the wider industry trend towards electric vehicles, with the associated difficulties of this switch.

Centre for Brexit Studies

The Centre for Brexit Studies is a research centre at Birmingham City University that focuses on various aspects of the impact of Brexit on the UK.

Auto industry hit from Coronavirus could be even bigger than latest forecast (March 31, 2020)
In this blog, David Bailey looks at the impact of the coronavirus lockdown on the UK auto industry. He explains why estimates of lost production may be the "least bad" scenario, and why this short-term disruption may prove to have long-term consequences, for example, due to the uncertainty about how demand for cars will look after the pandemic ends.

The auto industry struggling in a changing world (March 30, 2020)
This blog announces the publication of Carmageddon, a new Bite-Sized book on the effects of Brexit on the UK auto-industry, and shares the chapter by Ross Clark.

UK auto shuts down: government needs to step in to support workers, and fast, as Coronavirus hits (March 19, 2020)
David Bailey explores the impact of the coronavirus on the UK auto industry. Noting that the sector was already facing difficulties, not least due to Brexit, he comments that the coronavirus pandemic could not have come at a worse time, and that the damage it is doing may lead to long-term, not just temporary, negative effects. Finally, Bailey reflects on what the UK could replicate from the measures that some other countries are using to support their manufacturing during this period.

Budget Reflections: A welcome end to austerity but more to be done (March 16, 2020)
David Bailey looks at the announced government budget. He notes that it is welcome that there will be an increase in public infrastructure investment and a change in how such projects are assessed so as to promote regional equality. Bailey also reflects on changes to fiscal rules and the potential to increase spending in other areas, before finally reflecting on the challenges that Brexit will still pose, including for UK's lagging regions, despite the higher announced spending.

What a difference a decisive election makes (March 9, 2020)
This blog announces the publication of Carmageddon, a new Bite-Sized book on the effects of Brexit on the UK auto-industry, and shares the chapter by Neil Winton.

Overt optimism cannot hide the facts (February 28, 2020)
This blog announces the publication of Carmageddon, a new Bite-Sized book on the effects of Brexit on the UK auto-industry, and shares the chapter by Justin Cox and David Oakley.

2040, 2035, 2032? The ICE Ban: the UK needs joined up policy to get there, not policy made up on the hoof (February 24, 2020)
David Bailey critically assesses the UK government's plans to ban cars with internal combustion engines (ICE). He points out that, for example, it is not clear how the plan will include plug-in hybrids, but, more importantly, that there is no real plan on how to reach the target, and the government policies for the uptake of electric vehicles are constantly shifting and in any case insufficient. He argues that a much more integrated industrial policy is needed to achieve the target year (whichever one it ends up being) for the banning of ICE cars. 

There may be trouble ahead... (February 18, 2020)
David Bailey gives an overview of the findings of Carmageddon, a new Bite-Sized book on the effects of Brexit on the UK auto-industry.

West Midlands transport industries and Brexit (February 14, 2020)
This blog post gives an overview of the Regional Transport – a supply chain mapping exercise and Brexit exposure check of automotive, aerospace and rail value dependency in the WMCA region report, focusing on the major risks that Brexit poses for these sectors in the West Midlands Combined Authority area. These include a high dependence on the Channel Tunnel, a high proportion of EU workers in their workforces, a high dependence of many firms in the supply chain on a relatively small number of top firms that may decide to pull out of the UK post-Brexit, and a number of other issues.

UK in a Changing Europe

Professor David Bailey regularly blogs on the UK in a Changing Europe website. Below is a list of his blog posts, with links and short descriptions.

UK auto: Covid-19 to hit industry harder than expected (1 April, 2020)
With the coronavirus epidemic and the lockdown hitting the economy hard, David Bailey examines specifically at the impacts on the automotive sector, looking at the likely short-term drop in production and the possible long-term negative effects.

Has Brexit helped business prepare for the coronavirus? (31 March, 2020)
In this blog, David Bailey looks at how previous planning and preparations for the shock of Brexit is now helping manufacturers and retailers deal with the supply chain disruptions due to the coronavirus epidemic and the government lockdown. He also looks at the limits of such preparations, and particularly reflects on the severe problems the automotive industry is facing.

Nissan investment boost eases some fears for UK car industry's future (for now) (11 March, 2020)
David Bailey talks about Nissan's decision to build the next Qashqai model in its Sunderland plant, but also cautions why, despite this good news, the auto industry is still facing problems due to the uncertainty about the final outcomes of the Brexit negotiations.

Minimum trade frictions will be vital for the UK automotive industry (25 February, 2020)
The blog explains why border frictions post-Brexit would be very damaging to the UK automotive industry, which is anyway facing a difficult period due to other factors.

The petrol and diesel ban: what sort of auto industry does the UK want after Brexit? (24 February, 2020)
David Bailey looks at the announced ban on petrol and diesel cars from 2035, explaining why there is no real plan on how to actually get there, focusing specifically on disjointed government policy aimed at increasing the uptake of electric vehicles and a lack of an industrial policy in the UK.

West Midlands transport industries and Brexit (6 February, 2020)
The blog gives an overview of a recent report that maps the supply chains in the automotive, rail and aerospace sectors in the West Midlands, as well as analyses their exposure to Brexit risks. (The report is also available on our website, here.)

Peugeot-Fiat merger - UK plants fear future (19 December, 2019)
Professor Bailey explains why mergers make sense in the car industry, including the now official Peugeot-Fiat one , due to the increasing costs of developing electric and driverless cars. However, he also explains why this merger puts at risk Vauxhall's operations in the UK, if the newly merged company looks to make cost savings.

A Brexit trade deal is vital for manufacturing (16 December, 2019)
This blog explains why Brexit at the end of January 2020 is not the end of Brexit uncertainty, but merely opens a new chapter of uncertainty about the outcomes of the Brexit negotiations, and why both the uncertainty itself and the final outcomes are of critical importance for UK manufacturing. In particular, Bailey explains why a bare-bones free trade agreement would still be problematic for UK manufacturers, and why it is unlikely that a fuller agreement could be reached by the end of 2020.

State aid after Brexit (12 December, 2019)
David Bailey looks at EU State Aid rules in this blog, and whether being bound by them post-Brexit would hamper UK attempts to boost UK manufacturing. He explains that there is much more scope to do industrial policy within the State Aid rules than consecutive UK governments have done, and that divergence on State Aid rules in Brexit negotiations would likely be a big sticking point.

Auto industry issues stark new warning on no deal Brexit (28 November, 2019)
In this blog, David Bailey reflects on why the auto industry is massively concerned about a no-deal Brexit, why the uncertainty about Brexit outcomes is already harming the industry, and on how a no-deal Brexit could lead to severe short-term and long-term negative impacts.

Brexit uncertainty means Tesla choose Germany for European new factory (19 November, 2019)
Coming after Tesla chose Germany for its new European factory, this blog explains why the UK was not chosen as the preferred location, looking at Brexit uncertainty and the low uptake of electric vehicles in the UK (among other things, due to low government support and limited charging infrastructure). 

A Fiat Peugeot merger may be bad news for UK workers (31 October, 2019)
David Bailey explains why mergers in the car industry are necessary for companies to be able to deal with higher development costs of new models, and why the proposed Fiat Peugeot merger might be good for both companies. However, he also notes the risk of plant closures due to cost savings measures, notably Vauxhall's Ellesmere Port plant.

Nissan's no deal warning is no surprise - but even a Johsnon deal still offers challenges for UK auto (14 October, 2019)
Taking Nissan's Sunderland plant as the main example, David Bailey looks at why the company is very concerned about a no deal Brexit and particularly the potential tariffs on car exports to the EU, and explains why such considerations are of significance for all other car producers as well.

Auto makers prepare to shut down again fearing no deal Brexit disruption (27 September, 2019)
David Bailey explains in this blog why it is very difficult for automakers to prepare for a no deal Brexit, why this is very costly, and why they are choosing to temporarily shut down plants in anticipation of a crash out of the EU.

No deal preparations must be wide ranging (18 September, 2019)
This blog analyses how a no-deal Brexit would derail the just-in-time (JIT) supply chains in the UK automotive and other industries, why it would be difficult to overcome this problem, and what the government could do to mitigate such shocks.

PSA Group 'no deal means no investment' warning is no surprise (1 August, 2019)
In this blog, David Bailey explains why there is a real risk of PSA's deciding to close its Ellesmere Port plant due to Brexit uncertainty, and reflects on the wider problems in the UK automotive industry.

Good news for the UK car industry could be undone by a no-deal Brexit (6 July, 2019)
David Bailey talks about the PSA and JLR's announced investment into producing new car models in the UK, but also explains how, in PSA's case, this might be derailed by a no-deal Brexit.

Brexit and investment: a three year assessment (2 July, 2019)
Here, Professor David Bailey reflects on the general investment slump in the UK after the Brexit referendum and the business uncertainty that the repeated Brexit cliff-hangers have brought about.

UK car manufacturing slumps amidst Brexit uncertainty (31 May, 2019)
The blog looks at the costs of preparing for a no-deal Brexit, as well as the slump in car manufacturing and investment in the automotive sector that had already been brought about by the uncertainty over Brexit.