Socio-Economic Impact Model for the UK: SEIM-UK

Interregional inequalities in the UK are amongst the greatest in the industrialised world, and over more than three decades UK government policy has proved to be very ineffective at addressing these inequalities. 

At the same time, the UK is now undergoing a process of major sub-national governance reforms with devolution and the development of Local industrial Strategies being key pillars in the evolving economic and institutional landscape. The need for detailed evidence concerning the functioning of UK city and regional economies has never been greater and SEIM-UK is a response to this call. 

SEIM-UK is a UK Multi-regional Input-Output model that takes into account different extensions regarding the labour market and demographics, as well as distinguishing between the socioeconomic characteristics of households and their patterns of consumption. The SEIM-UK model will allow for much more detailed, sector and place-sensitive economic analyses to be undertaken than is currently available, which will better serve the evolving needs of the UK national and sub-national policy-making communities. 

Objectives

The main objective of the project is the construction of an impact assessment model, based on a multi-regional input-output (IO) framework for the UK. The multi-regional model will cover 37 regions of the UK (NUTS-2 classification) and it will include foreign trade flows with other countries, as well as different households’ profiles by socio-economic characteristics (age, income, etc.). The applications of the model focus on three main different features: (1) globalisation, technological and structural change in the labour market; (2) household heterogeneity and socio-demographic change; and (3) the evolution of trade patterns and value added chains.

  1. Globalization comprises different phenomena like trade openness, outsourcing and migration. These developments drive - together with biased technological change - the changes in the structure of employment. Technically, employment demand is modelled in the framework of occupations by industry, allowing for substitution with other factors, as well as for different sources of technical change that determines employment by occupation. Different hypotheses, polarization in the occupation/skill structure and labour participation are analysed by the model.
  2. Heterogeneous household groups represent the household sector. Private consumption is therefore not only a function of prices and income but of household composition by socio-demographic variables. Phenomena like migration and ageing not only affect the aforementioned employment structures but also consumption demand and thereby the long-run structural change in a region.
  3. Substitutions in trade, both at the level of one region (between domestic and imported products) as well as between products of different origin will be analysed. 

Research team

  • Professor Raquel Ortega-Argilés, Professor of Regional Economic Development, Birmingham Business School, Project Coordinator
  • Dr. Andre Carrascal-Incera, Post-doctoral Research Fellow in Economic Modelling, City-REDI Institute, Birmingham Business School, University of Birmingham
  • Dr. Tasos Kitsos, Post-doctoral Research Fellow, City-REDI Institute, Birmingham Business School, University of Birmingham
  • Dr. Deniz Sevinc, Post-doctoral Research Fellow, City-REDI Institute, Birmingham Business School, University of Birmingham
  • Dr. Diana Gutierrez-Posada, Research Fellow in Data Science, City-REDI Institute, Birmingham Business School, University of Birmingham
  • Professor Geoffrey Hewings, Emeritus Director of REAL; Emeritus Professor of Geography & Regional Science, Economics, and Urban & Regional Planning, University of Illinois
  • Professor Kurt Kratena, WIFO and CESAR

Project support

Sarah Jeffery, Centre Manager, City REDI

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Funder/client: Internal project
Timescale: Ongoing

CONTACT

Raquel Ortega-ArgilésProject lead: Raquel Ortega-Argiles
Tel: 0121 414 6761
EmailR.OrtegaArgiles@bham.ac.uk