Professor Peter Sinclair

Professor Peter Sinclair

The Department of Economics
Emeritus Professor

Contact details

Department of Economics
University of Birmingham
JG Smith Building
B15 2TT

It is with great sadness that the University of Birmingham announces the passing away of Peter Sinclair, Emeritus Professor in the Department of Economics. Peter Sinclair sadly passed away in March 2020 after battling with the effects of COVID-19. An in memoriam page has been set up to commemorate Peter Sinclair’s contribution to the University.


BA / MA Oxford, PPE, D.Phil. Oxford





International, monetary, and public economics, and the theory of economic policy

Other activities

Chairman, Royal Economic Society Easter School (since 1994)

MY LINKS: Personal Homepage


Rebalancing the UK Macroeconomy (2019) Manchester School, 87, 62-77

Real Estate, Construction, Money, Credit and Finance, ch 12 in The Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking (2019), ed David Mayes, Pierre Siklos and Jan-Egbert Sturm, Oxford University Press, 337-368

Monetary Policy Normals, Future and Past, 2017, with William Allen, National Institute of Economic Research, August, R5-R12

Ezra Mishan: Contrarian and Sage: an Appreciation, 2016, Singapore Economic Review, v. 61

Financial Policy Challenges for the EU and the United Kingdom, 2016, Resilient Futures: Finance, Industry and Parliament Trust, 45-49

Labour Market Integration and Associated Issues: Kipling Was Wrong, 2016, ch 10 in Boosting European Competitiveness: The Role of the CESEE Countries, ed Marek Belka et al, Edward Elgar, 113-132

Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in South Africa, 2014, with J. Aron, G. Farrell and J. Muellbauer, Journal of Development Studies, 144-164, January (an earlier version was a CEPR discussion paper, December 2010)

Quantitative Easing is not as Unconventional as it Seems, 2012, with Colin Ellis, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 837-54

Safeguarding Global Financial Stability, 2012, in The Encyclopedia of Financial Globalization, eds.  X. Freixas, M. Taylor and others, Elsevier

Inflation Targeting Dilemmas, 2011, University of Birmingham Discussion Papers in Economics 11-23 (also presented at the Czech National Bank conference, June 2011)

Government Debt and David Hume (short title), 2011, University of Edinburgh Discussion Papers in Economics, 208 

Macroprudential Financial Regulation: Why, What, How? 2011, paper presented to Bank Indonesia Conference May 2011, and University of Birmingham Discussion Paper in Economics 11-21

Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Inequality Puzzles, 90th Anniversary conference speech (published 2011), in Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in the Post-crisis Era, South African Reserve Bank Conference Series 2010

The Capital Needs of Central Banks, 2010, edited with S. Milton, Routledge Taylor and Francis

Inflation Expectations, 2010, edited, Routledge Taylor and Francis

The Whys and Wherefores of Controlling Inflation, 2009,State Bank of Pakistan Research Bulletin, 5, 31-52

Bonuses and the Credit Crunch, 2009, with Guy Spier and Tom Skinner, in Towards a New Framework for Financial Stability, ed. D. Mayes, R. Pringle and M. Taylor, Central Banking Publications, 259-270

Trade, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Asian Economies, 2009, with X. Liu and C. Shu, Applied Economics, 1602-12

Green GDP, Global Warming and Monetary Policy (2008), paper delivered at the Annual Conference of Bank Indonesia, published in Proceedings, 2009

How we Might Model a Credit Squeeze and Draw Some Policy Implications From It, 2008, Kiel Institute for the World Economy Discussion Paper Series 2008-40 and, in a revised version, economics ejournal

Does the Linkage Between Stock Market Performance and Economic Growth Vary Across Greater China? 2008, with X. Liu, Applied Economics Letters, 505-8

The Treasury and Economic Policy, 2007, in Blair’s Britain, ed. A. Seldon, Cambridge University Press, 185-213

What do we Really Mean by Monetary (or Price) and Financial Stability? 2007, Republic Commemoration Lecture, Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Colombo

On Risk Aversion and Investment: a Theoretical Approach, 2006, with John Fender, Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics, 162, 601-626

Financial Stability and Bank Solvency, 2005, with A. Haldane, G. Hoggarth and V. Saporta, ch 7 in Systemic Financial Crises: Resolving Large Bank Insolvencies, ed G. Kaufman, World Scientific

Exchange Rates, Capital Flows and Policy 2005, edited with Rebecca Driver and Christoph Thoenissen, Routledge Taylor and Francis

How Monetary Policy Works, 2005, with Lavan Mahadeva, Routledge Taylor and Francis

Resolution of Banking Crises, 2003, with G. Hoggarth and J. Reidhill, Financial Stability Review, December, 109-123

The Optimal Rate of Inflation:  an Academic Approach, 2003, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 343-351

Monetary Transmission in Diverse Economies (2002), edited with Lavan Mahadeva, Cambridge University Press

Financial Stability and Central Banks (2001), with Richard Brealey and others, Routledge

Relationships between Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment and Trade, 2002, with X. Liu and P. Burridge, Applied Economics Letters, 1433-40

Inflation, Debt, Fiscal Policy and Ambiguity, 2002, with M. Fry, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 7, 157-63

A Theory of Credit Ceilings and Renegotiation, 2000, with J. Fender, Bulletin of Economic Research, 52, 235-256

Central Banks and Financial Stability, 2000, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, December, 377-391

Continuity, Change and Consumption: British Economic Trends 1945-95, 1996, with C. Ryan and M. Walker, Contemporary British History, 35-59

Labour Subsidies: a New Look, 1996, with M. Artis, Metroeconomica, 47, 105-24

International Trade: a European Text, 1996, with Paul Brenton and Henry Scott, Oxford University Press

On the Optimal Trend of Fossil Fuel Taxation, 1994, Oxford Economic Papers, 869-877

World Trade, Protectionist Follies, and Europe’s Options for the Future, 1993, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 9, 114-125

The Scope and Nature of Monetary Economics, 1992, Journal of Economic Surveys, 6, 63-82

High Does Nothing and Rising is Worse: Carbon Taxes Need to Keep Falling to Reduce Harmful Emissions, 1992, Manchester School, 41-52 

The Economics of Gold, 1992, Interdisciplinary Science Reviews, 17, 229-233

Taxation, Information and Capital, 1991 edited with Martin Slater, Oxford University Press

Modern International Economics, 1991, with Shelagh Heffernan, Blackwell

The Economics of Imitation, 1990, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 37, 113-144

Exchange Rates, Capital, Output and Debt when Nominal Interest Rates are Policy Parameters, 1990, Economic and Social Review, 22, 1-23

Some Reasons Why International Policy Coordination Only Sometimes Pays, 1989, Greek Economic Review, 11

Keynes and Economic Policy, 1987, edited with Walter Eltis, Macmillan

Unemployment: Economic Theory and Evidence, 1986, Blackwell

Prices, Quantities and Expectations, 1986, editor, Oxford University Press

Strategic Behaviour and Industrial Competition, 1986, edited with Derek Morris, Martin Slater and John Vickers, Oxford University Press

The Unemployment Problem in the 1980s, 1985, with D. Morris, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 1 (2), 1-19

The Foundations of Macroeconomic and Monetary Theory, 1983, Oxford University Press

The Money Supply and the Exchange Rate, 1983, edited with Walter Eltis, Oxford University Press

How Does a Change in the Price of Energy Affect Output and Employment? 1983, Greek Economic Review, 5

Sobre la Trayectoria Optima de Inflacion, 1983, Monetaria, 8

When Will Technical Progress Destroy Jobs? 1981, Oxford Economic Papers, 31, 1-18

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