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PRODID:-//University of Birmingham//Events//EN
VERSION:2.0
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20241126T163500Z
DTSTART:20241205T140000Z
DTEND:20241205T150000Z
SUMMARY:Cross-country risk quantification of extreme wildfires in Mediterranean Europe
UID:www.birmingham.ac.uk/211800
DESCRIPTION:Cross-country risk quantification of extreme wildfires in Mediterranean Europe\n
Sarah Meier, University of Exeter
 We estimate the country-level risk of extreme wildfires defined by burned area (BA) for Mediterranean Europe and carry out a cross-country comparison. To this end, we avail of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) geospatial data from 2006 to 2019 to perform an extreme value analysis. More specifically, we apply a point process characterisation of wildfire extremes using maximum likelihood estimation. By modelling covariates, we also evaluate potential trends and correlations with commonly known factors that drive or affect wildfire occurrence, such as the Fire Weather Index as a proxy for meteorological conditions, population density, land cover type, and seasonality. We find that the highest risk of extreme wildfires is in Portugal (PT), followed by Greece (GR), Spain (ES), and Italy (IT) with a 10-year BA return level of 50,338 ha, 33,242 ha, 25,165 ha, and 8,966 ha, respectively. Coupling our results with existing estimates of the monetary impact of large wildfires suggests expected losses of €162–439 million (PT), €81–219 million (ES), €41–290 million (GR), and €18–78 million (IT) for such 10-year return period events.\n
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LOCATION:Watson Building
STATUS:CONFIRMED
TRANSP:OPAQUE
CLASS:PUBLIC
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