Mrs Andrea Roalfe BSc, MSc

Institute of Applied Health Research
Honorary Senior Research Fellow

Contact details

Primary Care Clinical Sciences
Institute of Applied Health Research
College of Medical and Dental Sciences
University of Birmingham
B15 2TT

Andrea is an applied medical statistician experienced in analysing large observational studies and clinical trials.

She has published over 60 research papers in scientific journals and has received grants from the National Institute for Health Research, The Health Foundation and the Medical Research Council. 


  • MSc Medical Statistics and Information Technology, University of Leicester 1997
  • Fellow of Royal Statistical Society 1994
  • BSc (Hons) Computing and Statistics, Cardiff University 1985


Andrea graduated from Cardiff University with a BSc (Hons) in Computing and Statistics in 1985. She then spent 12 years working as a statistician for the West Midlands Regional Health Authority & NHS Executive. During this time she completed an MSc in Medical Statistics at the University of Leicester. She joined the Department of Primary Care and General Practice (now Primary Care Clinical Sciences) at the University of Birmingham in 1997 as a Research Fellow and was promoted to Senior Lecturer in Medical Statistics in 2006.  Andrea is now a Senior Research Fellow in the Institute of Applied Health Research.

She has worked in a variety of clinical research areas including dyspepsia, irritable bowel syndrome and thyroid disease but more recently focusing on cardiovascular research. Projects have included large screening studies estimating the prevalence of heart failure (ECHOES) and sub-clinical thyroid disease (BETS); and randomised controlled trials including warfarin versus aspirin for stroke prevention (BAFTA), Birmingham Endoscopy Study, and Irritable Bowel Syndrome Hypnotherapy Trial.  

She has been actively involved in the design of several cluster randomised trials, and is currently responsible for the statistical analysis of the HTA funded OTCH cluster randomised trial, assessing the efficacy of occupational therapy for residents with stroke in UK care homes.

Her present interests include feasibility and pilot studies, clinical prediction rules, validation and standardisation methods.   

Her past teaching experience includes the design and delivery of short courses in statistics for Innovation in Practice-based Research for Optometrists (iPRO) and the Research Support Facility (RSF).  


















Tait L, Roalfe AK, Mant J, Cowie MR, Deeks JJ, Iles R, Barton PM, Taylor CJ, Derit M, Hobbs FD. The REFER (REFer for EchocaRdiogram) protocol: a prospective validation of a clinical decision rule, NT-proBNP, or their combination, in the diagnosis of heart failure in primary care. Rationale and design. BMC Cardiovasc Disord. 2012 Oct 30;12:97. doi: 10.1186/1471-2261-12-97.

Roalfe AK, Mant J, Doust JA, Barton P, Cowie MR, Glasziou P, Mant D, McManus RJ, Holder R, Deeks JJ, Doughty RN, Hoes AW, Fletcher K, Hobbs FDR.  Development and initial validation of a simple clinical decision tool to predict the presence of heart failure in primary care: the MICE (Male, Infarction, Crepitations, Edema) rule. European Journal of Heart Failure. June 2012.

Roalfe AK, Bryant TL, Davies MH, Hackett TG, Saba S, Fletcher K, Lip GY, Hobbs FD, Mant J; on behalf of the BAFTA investigators. A cross-sectional study of quality of life in an elderly population (75 years and over) with atrial fibrillation: secondary analysis of data from the Birmingham Atrial Fibrillation Treatment of the Aged study. Europace. 2012 May 10.     

Hobbs FD, Roalfe AK, Lip GY, Fletcher K, Fitzmaurice DA, Mant J. Performance of stroke risk scores in older people with atrial fibrillation not taking warfarin: comparative cohort study from BAFTA trial. BMJ 2011 Jun 23;342:d3653. doi: 10.1136/bmj.d3653.

Parle J, Roberts L, Wilson S, Pattison H, Roalfe A, Haque MS, Heath C, Sheppard M, Franklyn J, Hobbs FD (2010). A randomized controlled trial of the effect of thyroxine replacement on cognitive function in community-living elderly subjects with subclinical hypothyroidism: the Birmingham Elderly Thyroid study.J Clin Endocrinol Metab, 95(8):3623-32.

Mant J, Roalfe A, Barton P, Cowie MR, Glasziou P et al. (2009) Systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis of diagnosis of heart failure, with modelling of implications of different diagnostic strategies in primary care. Health Technol Assess. 13(32):1-232

Roalfe AK, Holder RL, Wilson S (2008). Standardisation of rates using logistic regression: a comparison with the direct method. BMC Health Services Res, 8(1): 275.

Roalfe AK, Roberts LM, Wilson S (2008). Evaluation of the Birmingham IBS symptom questionnaire. BMC Gastroenterol, 8:30.