Professor Sam Watson

Department of Applied Health Sciences
Professor of Biostatics

Contact details

Email: s.i.watson@bham.ac.uk

Address: Murray Learning Centre
University of Birmingham
Edgbaston
Birmingham
B15 2TT
UK

Professor of Biostatics in the Department of Applied Health Sciences working on applied statistics in public health and healthcare. Dr Watson's current research looks at methods of evaluation in low resource settings including cluster trial and survey methodology particularly using Bayesian methods. Current grants/projects include evaluation of water and sanitation interventions in the Cox's Bazar displaced person's camps in Bangladesh, efficient geographical cluster design, NIHR RIGHT programme on leprosy and Buruli ulcer, NIHR Global Heath Research Unit on Improving Health in Slums, stepped-wedge cluster trial of a mental health programme in Malawi (NIH), geostatistical analysis of Covid-19 data for routine surveillence (MRC/UKRI), and healthcare access and use survey in Sierra Leone and Liberia.

Qualifications

PhD in Health Sciences, University of Warwick, 2014
MSc in Health Economics, City University of London, 2011
BSc. (Hons) in Natural Sciences, University of Bath, 2010

Postgraduate supervision

Applied statistics: experimental design, cluster trials, spatial statistics

Research

I am a statistician in the Instititue of Applied Health Research. My research interests relate to experimental design, particularly cluster randomised trials, spatial statistics, and their intersection. Recent and ongoing grants I lead include an MRC/NIHR funded project examining the design and analysis of evaluations of interventions in space (and time), particularly focussing on generalised linear geospatial and mixed models; an NIHR/UKRI funded project on methods for real-time disease surveillance using geospatial prevalence mapping methods; and a small GCRF project piloting use of low-cost imperfect tests as outcome measures for prevalence estimation and evaluation of local interventions.

I am also a co-investigator for several global health trials and survey-based projects including the NIHR Global Health Research Unit on Improving Health in Slums (NIHR), a stepped-wedge trial of integrating depression care into routine HIV and chronic illness services in Malawi (NIH), the NIHR RIGHT programme on leprosy and Buruli ulcer, and a stepped-wedge trial of remote telephone consulting in Tanzania and Nigeria (NIHR/GCRF).

Publications

Highlight publications

I. Watson, S 2021, 'Efficient design of geographically-defined clusters with spatial autocorrelation', Journal of Applied Statistics. https://doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2021.1941807

Watson, SI, Lilford, RJ, Sun, J & Bion, J 2021, 'Estimating the effect of health service delivery interventions on patient length of stay: a Bayesian survival analysis approach', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics), vol. 70, no. 5, pp. 1164-1186. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12501

Watson, S, Girling, A & Hemming, K 2021, 'Design and analysis of three-arm parallel cluster randomized trials with small numbers of clusters', Statistics in Medicine, vol. 40, no. 5, pp. 1133-1146. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.8828

Watson, SI, Dixon-Woods, M & Lilford, RJ 2020, 'Randomised evaluation of government health programmes does present a challenge to standard research ethics frameworks', Journal of Medical Ethics, vol. 46, no. 1, pp. 34-35. https://doi.org/10.1136/medethics-2019-106003

Recent publications

Article

Hemming, K, Hall, J, Copas, A, Watson, S, Taljaard, M & Hooper, R 2025, 'Covariate adjustment in cluster randomised trials: a practical guide', BMJ, vol. 391, e084194. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2025-084194

Watson, SI & Smith, TA 2025, 'Design and analysis of randomized trials to estimate spatio-temporally heterogeneous treatment effects', Journal of the American Statistical Association. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2025.2527424

Watson, S & Hooper, R 2025, 'Grand rounds in methodology: Improving the design of staggered implementation cluster randomised trials', BMJ Quality & Safety, pp. 631-636. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjqs-2025-018697

Girling, AJ & Watson, SI 2025, 'Optimal allocation of observations in stepped-wedge and other cluster studies with correlated cluster-period effects', Statistics in Medicine, vol. 44, no. 13-14, e70100. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.70100

Dibba, Y, Boima, F, Jerome, JG, Watson, SI, Chery, L, Higgins, J, Chung, V, Joseph, S, Mulailwa, KP, Mukherjee, J & Mekonnen, ZA 2025, 'Patient satisfaction and its associated factors in selected primary healthcare facilities in Kono District, Sierra Leone: a cross-sectional study', BMJ open, vol. 15, no. 4, e093501. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2024-093501

Lilford, R, Daniels, B, McPake, B, Bhutta, Z, Mash, R, Griffiths, F, Omigbodun, A, Pereira Pinto, Jr, E, Jain, R, Asiki, G, Webb, E, Scandrett, K, Chilton, P, Sartori, J, Chen, Y-F, Waiswa, P, Ezeh, A, Kyobutungi, C, Leung, GM, Machado, C, Sheikh, K, Watson, S & Das, J 2025, 'Policy and service delivery proposals to improve primary care services in low-income and middle-income country cities', Lancet Global Health, vol. 13, no. 5, pp. E954-E966. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00536-9

Reeves, K, Watson, SI, Crothers, H, Bird, P, Lawson, A, Skrybant, M & Lilford, R 2025, 'Prevalence of malnutrition among hospital admissions to English NHS hospitals over two economically constrained decades: Evidence from routine health data', BMJ Public Health, vol. 3, no. 2, e002095. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjph-2024-002095

Lilford, RJ, Daniels, B, McPake, B, Bhutta, ZA, Mash, R, Griffiths, F, Omigbodun, A, Pereira Pinto, Jr, E, Jain, R, Asiki, G, Webb, E, Scandrett, K, Chilton, PJ, Sartori, J, Chen, Y-F, Waiswa, P, Ezeh, A, Kyobutungi, C, Leung, GM, Machado, C, Sheikh, K, Watson, SI & Das, J 2025, 'Supply-side and demand-side factors affecting allopathic primary care service delivery in low-income and middle-income country cities', Lancet Global Health, vol. 13, no. 5, pp. e942-e953. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00535-7

McBain, RK, Mwale, O, Mpinga, K, Kamwiyo, M, Kayira, W, Ruderman, T, Connolly, E, Watson, SI, Wroe, EB, Munyaneza, F, Dullie, L, Raviola, G, Smith, SL, Kulisewa, K, Udedi, M, Patel, V & Wagner, GJ 2024, 'Effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and positive externalities of integrated chronic care for adults with major depressive disorder in Malawi (IC3D): a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised, controlled trial', The Lancet, vol. 404, no. 10465, pp. 1823-1834. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)01809-9

Watson, SI, Ul Alam, MA, Rego, RTT, Lilford, R, Barman, AK, Alam, B, Faruque, ASG & Islam, MS 2024, 'Low cost and real-time surveillance of enteric infection and diarrhoeal disease using rapid diagnostic tests in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh', Conflict and Health, vol. 18, 62. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13031-024-00617-1

Comment/debate

Lilford, RJ, Daniels, B, McPake, B, Bhutta, Z, Mash, R, Griffiths, F, Omigbodun, A, Pereira Pinto, Jr, E, Jain, R, Asiki, G, Webb, E, Scandrett, K, Chilton, PJ, Sartori, J, Chen, Y-F, Waiswa, P, Ezeh, A, Kyobutungi, C, Leung, GM, Machado, C, Sheikh, K, Watson, SI & Das, J 2025, 'Improving primary health-care services in LMIC cities', Lancet Global Health, vol. 13, no. 5, pp. E795-E796. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00537-0

Review article

Kachapila, M, Watson, S, Pinkney, T, Hall, JA, Andronis, L & Oppong, R 2025, 'Economic considerations in designs and modifications of multiarm, multistage adaptive and adaptive platform randomized controlled trials: A systematic literature review', Value in Health, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 477-488. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2024.10.3849

Thompson, J, Watson, SI, Middleton, L & Hemming, K 2025, 'Estimating relative risks and risk differences in randomised controlled trials: a systematic review of current practice', Trials, vol. 26, 1. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13063-024-08690-w

Thompson, JY, Shaw, J, Watson, S, Wang, Y, Robinson, C, Taljaard, M & Hemming, K 2025, 'Review of the quality of reporting of statistical analysis plans for cluster randomized trials', Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2025.111726

Napit, IB, Shrestha, D, Choudhury, S, Gkini, E, Ilozumba, O, Gill, P, Bishop, J, Neupane, K, Adhikari, A, Sartori, J, Watson, SI & Lilford, R 2024, 'A randomised Trial of Autologous Blood products, leukocyte and platelet-rich fibrin (L-PRF), to promote ulcer healing in LEprosy: The TABLE trial', PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, vol. 18, no. 5, e0012088. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0012088

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