Tong Ren

The Sustainability of Fiscal Subsidies in China’s Long-Term Care Insurance Pilots

Supervisors: Professor Jon Glasby and Professor Matthew Bennett

Tong RenMy thesis investigates how China’s long-term care insurance (LTCI) system has developed amid rapid population ageing and evolving central-local government dynamics.

Using policy diffusion theory and the central-local government relations perspective as the analytical lens, it traces the institutional trajectory of the LTCI pilots launched in 2016 and expanded nationwide in 2020. A comparative analysis of financing mechanism, benefit design, disability assessment, and public-private partnerships (PPPs) shows a gradual shift from decentralised local experimentation toward emerging national standardisation, while also highlighting persistent challenges such as regional inequality and fiscal strain. To assess long-term fiscal sustainability, the thesis applies GM (1,1) grey forecasting models alongside cell-based projection models, incorporating demographic and economic indicators. Simulations of alternative subsidy schemes reveal that the viability of LTCI depends heavily on local fiscal capacity, subsidy design, and the balance of central-local redistribution. 

The research contributes a systematic mapping of institutional evolution, a multi-level quantitative sustainability assessment, and a set of policy strategies aimed at strengthening the long-term equity, efficiency, and financial resilience of China’s LTCI system.

Qualifications

  • Doctor of Philosophy (University of Birmingham), UK
  • Master of Science in Management (University of Bristol), UK
  • Bachelor of Management (Nanjing University of Finance and Economics), China

Research interests

  • Long-term care insurance
  • Ageing issues
  • Social policy

Biography

A PhD in Social Policy was completed at the University of Birmingham, following earlier studies that included a bachelor’s degree in China and a master’s degree at the University of Bristol. Academic work across all three stages of study has consistently centred on long-term care insurance (LTCI) in China, with a sustained focus on its policy design, financing arrangements, and governance dynamics. The overarching aim is to contribute to evidence-based policymaking that promotes equitable and sustainable long-term care for China’s rapidly ageing population.

Publications

Ren, T. and Li, X. (2018). Analysis of the Impact of Delaying Retirement Policy on Pension Gap Rate. Modern Business, 12, pp.164–165. (In Chinese, ISSN 1673-5889)

Ren, T. and Li, X. (2020). Research on the Cash Payment Model in the Reform of Long-Term Care System. Labour Security World, 09, pp.58–59. (In Chinese, ISSN 1007-7243)

Contact details:

Email: TXR171@student.bham.ac.uk

Personal email: rita.rt12345@gmail.com

X (Twitter): @TongRen_UoB