Recent publications
Article
Riley, RD, Collins, GS, Whittle, R, Archer, L, Snell, KIE, Dhiman, P, Kirton, L, Legha, A, Liu, X, Denniston, AK, Harrell, FE, Wynants, L, Martin, GP & Ensor, J 2025, 'A decomposition of Fisher's information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models for individual risk-part 1: binary outcomes', Diagnostic and Prognostic Research, vol. 9, no. 1, 14. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41512-025-00193-9
Riley, R, Collins, G, Archer, L, Whittle, R, Legha, A, Kirton, L, Dhiman, P, Sadatsafavi, M, Adderley, N, Alderman, J, Martin, GP & Ensor, J 2025, 'A decomposition of Fisher’s information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models - Part 2: time-to-event outcomes', Diagnostic and Prognostic Research.
Menon, V, Shimelash, N, Rutunda, S, Nshimiyimana, C, Archer, L, Emmanuel-Fabula, M, Berhe, DF, Gill, J, Hezagira, E, Remera, E, Riley, R, Wong, R, Denniston, AK, Mateen, BA & Liu, X 2025, 'Assessing the potential utility of large language models for assisting community health workers: protocol for a prospective, observational study in Rwanda', BMJ open, vol. 15, no. 10, e110927. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2025-110927
STRATIFY investigators, Wang, A, Koshiaris, C, Archer, L, Riley, RD, Snell, KIE, Stevens, R, Banerjee, A, Usher-Smith, JA, Swain, S, Clegg, A, Clark, CE, Payne, RA, Hobbs, RFD, Mcmanus, RJ & Sheppard, JP 2025, 'Developing prediction models for electrolyte abnormalities in patients indicated for antihypertensive therapy: evidence-based treatment and monitoring recommendations', Journal of Hypertension. https://doi.org/10.1097/HJH.0000000000004032
Whittle, R, Ensor, J, Archer, L, Collins, GS, Dhiman, P, Denniston, A, Alderman, J, Legha, A, van Smeden, M, Moons, KG, Cazier, J-B, Riley, RD & Snell, KIE 2025, 'Extended sample size calculations for evaluation of prediction models using a threshold for classification', BMC Medical Research Methodology, vol. 25, no. 1, 170. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-025-02592-4
Riley, RD, Ensor, J, Snell, KIE, Archer, L, Whittle, R, Dhiman, P, Alderman, J, Liu, X, Kirton, L, Manson-Whitton, J, van Smeden, M, Nirantharakumar, K, Denniston, AK, Van Calster, B & Collins, G 2025, 'Importance of sample size on the quality and utility of AI-based prediction models for healthcare', The Lancet Digital Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landig.2025.01.013
Koshiaris, C, Wang, A, Archer, L, Riley, RD, Snell, KIE, Stevens, RJ, Banerjee, A, Swain, S, Clegg, A, Clark, CE, Payne, RA, Hobbs, FDR, Ogden, M, McManus, RJ, Sheppard, JP & STRATIFY investigators 2025, 'Predicting hypotension, syncope, and fracture risk in patients indicated for antihypertensive treatment: the STRATIFY models', Nature Communications, vol. 16, 9371. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-64408-9
Martin, J, Scandrett, K, Easter, C, Whittle, R, Legha, A, Hillier, B, Thompson, J & Archer, L 2025, 'The Role of Generative AI in Data Analysis Assessments', Education in Practice, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 107-116. <https://bham.sharepoint.com/sites/aseddev/Shared%20Documents/EiP%20Journal%20Vol%206.1/10_Martin_EIP_6.1%20Spring%202025.pdf?csf=1&web=1&e=zOUylv>
Riley, RD, Collins, G, Kirton, L, Snell, KIE, Ensor, J, Whittle, R, Dhiman, P, van Smeden, M, Liu, X, Alderman, J, Nirantharakumar, K, Manson-Whitton, J, Westwood, AJ, Cazier, J-B, Moons, KGM, Martin, GP, Sperrin, M, Denniston, AK, Jr, FEH & Archer, L 2025, 'Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models: rationale, challenges, and approaches', BMJ, vol. 388, e080749. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2024-080749
Archer, L, Hattle, M, Riley, RD & The eFI+ investigators 2024, 'Development and external validation of the eFalls tool: a multivariable prediction model for the risk of ED attendance or hospitalisation with a fall or fracture in older adults', Age and Ageing, vol. 53, no. 3, afae057. https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afae057
Preprint
Riley, RD, Collins, GS, Whittle, R, Archer, L, Snell, KIE, Dhiman, P, Kirton, L, Legha, A, Liu, X, Denniston, A, Harrell Jr, FE, Wynants, L, Martin, GP & Ensor, J 2025 'A decomposition of Fisher's information to inform sample size for developing fair and precise clinical prediction models -- part 1: binary outcomes' arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2407.09293
Riley, RD, Collins, GS, Archer, L, Whittle, R, Legha, A, Kirton, L, Dhiman, P, Sadatsafavi, M, Adderley, NJ, Alderman, J, Martin, GP & Ensor, J 2025 'A decomposition of Fisher's information to inform sample size for developing fair and precise clinical prediction models -- Part 2: time-to-event outcomes' arXiv. <https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.14482>
Whittle, R, Riley, RD, Archer, L, Collins, GS, Legha, A, Snell, KIE & Ensor, J 2025 'A decomposition of Fisher's information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models -- Part 3: continuous outcomes' arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2507.2354
Legha, A, Ensor, J, Whittle, R, Archer, L, Van Calster, B, Christodoulou, E, Snell, KIE, Sadatsafavi, M, Collins, GS & Riley, RD 2025 'Sequential sample size calculations and learning curves safeguard the robust development of a clinical prediction model for individuals' arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2509.15134
Review article
Tsegaye, B, Snell, KIE, Archer, L, Kirtley, S, Riley, RD, Sperrin, M, Van Calster, B, Collins, G & Dhiman, P 2025, 'Larger sample sizes are needed when developing a clinical prediction model using machine learning in oncology: methodological systematic review', Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, vol. 180, 111675. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2025.111675
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