Recent publications
Article
Whittle, R, Riley, RD, Archer, L, Collins, GS, Legha, A, Snell, KIE & Ensor, J 2026, 'A decomposition of Fisher’s information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models – part 3: continuous outcomes', Diagnostic and Prognostic Research, vol. 10, no. 1, 11. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41512-026-00228-9
Archer, L, Relton, SD, Akbari, A, Best, K, Bestwick, R, Bucknall, M, Conroy, S, Hattle, M, Hollinghurst, J, Howdon, D, Hulme, C, Humphrey, S, Lyons, RA, Nikolova, S, Rodriguez, MP, Richards, S, Walters, K, West, R, Van der Windt, D, Riley, RD & Clegg, A 2026, 'Development and evaluation of the electronic frailty index+ (eFI+) tool for older people: prognostic prediction modelling with integrated decision curve and health economic analysis', Health Technology Assessment, vol. 30, no. 61, pp. 1-154. https://doi.org/10.3310/GJAC1008
Agweyu, A, Mwaniki, P, Menon, V, Korom, R, Isaaka, L, Wanyama, C, Gill, J, Kiptinness, S, Adan, N, Emmanuel-Fabula, M, Riley, R, Archer, L, Denniston, AK, Liu, X & Mateen, BA 2026, 'Generative AI-enabled clinical decision support system in primary care: a pragmatic, cluster-randomized trial', Nature Medicine, vol. 32, no. 8, pp. 3032–3039. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-026-04503-6
IAEA DLW Database Group 2026, 'Global external validation of fat mass prediction models for adults', Nature Health. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44360-026-00196-w
Legha, A, Ensor, J, Whittle, R, Archer, L, Van Calster, B, Christodoulou, E, Snell, KIE, Sadatsafavi, M, Collins, GS & Riley, RD 2026, 'Sequential sample size calculations and learning curves safeguard the robust development of a clinical prediction model for individuals', Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, vol. 191, 112117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2025.112117
Riley, RD, Collins, GS, Whittle, R, Archer, L, Snell, KIE, Dhiman, P, Kirton, L, Legha, A, Liu, X, Denniston, AK, Harrell, FE, Wynants, L, Martin, GP & Ensor, J 2025, 'A decomposition of Fisher's information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models for individual risk-part 1: binary outcomes', Diagnostic and Prognostic Research, vol. 9, no. 1, 14. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41512-025-00193-9
Riley, RD, Collins, GS, Archer, L, Whittle, R, Legha, A, Kirton, L, Dhiman, P, Sadatsafavi, M, Adderley, NJ, Alderman, J, Martin, GP & Ensor, J 2025, 'A decomposition of Fisher’s information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models - Part 2: time-to-event outcomes', Diagnostic and Prognostic Research, vol. 9, no. 1, 33. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41512-025-00204-9
Menon, V, Shimelash, N, Rutunda, S, Nshimiyimana, C, Archer, L, Emmanuel-Fabula, M, Berhe, DF, Gill, J, Hezagira, E, Remera, E, Riley, R, Wong, R, Denniston, AK, Mateen, BA & Liu, X 2025, 'Assessing the potential utility of large language models for assisting community health workers: protocol for a prospective, observational study in Rwanda', BMJ Open, vol. 15, no. 10, e110927. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2025-110927
STRATIFY investigators, Wang, A, Koshiaris, C, Archer, L, Riley, RD, Snell, KIE, Stevens, R, Banerjee, A, Usher-Smith, JA, Swain, S, Clegg, A, Clark, CE, Payne, RA, Hobbs, RFD, Mcmanus, RJ & Sheppard, JP 2025, 'Developing prediction models for electrolyte abnormalities in patients indicated for antihypertensive therapy: evidence-based treatment and monitoring recommendations', Journal of Hypertension. https://doi.org/10.1097/HJH.0000000000004032
Whittle, R, Ensor, J, Archer, L, Collins, GS, Dhiman, P, Denniston, A, Alderman, J, Legha, A, van Smeden, M, Moons, KG, Cazier, J-B, Riley, RD & Snell, KIE 2025, 'Extended sample size calculations for evaluation of prediction models using a threshold for classification', BMC Medical Research Methodology, vol. 25, no. 1, 170. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12874-025-02592-4
Riley, RD, Ensor, J, Snell, KIE, Archer, L, Whittle, R, Dhiman, P, Alderman, J, Liu, X, Kirton, L, Manson-Whitton, J, van Smeden, M, Nirantharakumar, K, Denniston, AK, Van Calster, B & Collins, G 2025, 'Importance of sample size on the quality and utility of AI-based prediction models for healthcare', The Lancet Digital Health. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landig.2025.01.013
Preprint
Riley, RD, Collins, GS, Whittle, R, Archer, L, Snell, KIE, Dhiman, P, Kirton, L, Legha, A, Liu, X, Denniston, A, Harrell Jr, FE, Wynants, L, Martin, GP & Ensor, J 2025 'A decomposition of Fisher's information to inform sample size for developing fair and precise clinical prediction models -- part 1: binary outcomes' arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2407.09293
Riley, RD, Collins, GS, Archer, L, Whittle, R, Legha, A, Kirton, L, Dhiman, P, Sadatsafavi, M, Adderley, NJ, Alderman, J, Martin, GP & Ensor, J 2025 'A decomposition of Fisher's information to inform sample size for developing fair and precise clinical prediction models -- Part 2: time-to-event outcomes' arXiv. <https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.14482>
Whittle, R, Riley, RD, Archer, L, Collins, GS, Legha, A, Snell, KIE & Ensor, J 2025 'A decomposition of Fisher's information to inform sample size for developing or updating fair and precise clinical prediction models -- Part 3: continuous outcomes' arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2507.23548
Review article
Whittle, R, Legha, A, Tsegaye, B, Ensor, J, Snell, KIE, Archer, L, Hudda, MT, Riley, RD, Dhiman, P & Collins, GS 2026, 'Reporting of external validation studies needs improvement: a systematic review of reporting in oncology prediction model studies', Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2026.112460
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