Dr Peter Hopcroft BSc(Hons), PhD

Dr Peter Hopcroft

School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences
Birmingham Fellow

Contact details

Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences
University of Birmingham
B15 2TT

Peter is interested in understanding and predicting climate change in both the past and future. Peter specialises in using Earth System models, particularly as applied to the periods prior to industrialisation.

Peter's personal website


  • 2004: BSc(Hons) Physics with studies in musical performance, Imperial College London & Royal College of Music
  • 2009: PhD Geophysics, Imperial College London

Postgraduate supervision

I am keen to hear from prospective PhD students on all topics related to Earth System and climate modelling. I am particularly interested in simulating the Green Sahara and other aspects of palaeo-monsoon variations; the palaeo mineral dust cycle, particularly related to abrupt climate dust and climate events during the last glacial period and the methane cycle. Projects that look at links between model performance for the past and the future would also be encouraged. I am happy to consider distance learning candidates where appropriate.


Peter is interested in understanding and predicting climate change in both the past and future. Peter specialises in using Earth System models, particularly as applied to the periods prior to industrialisation.




Recent publications


Trauth, M, Asrat, A, Fischer, ML, Hopcroft, P, Foerster, V, Kaboth-Bahr, S, Kindermann, K, Lamb, HF, Marwan, N, Maslin, MA & Schaebitz, F 2024, 'Early warning signals of the termination of the African Humid Period(s)', Nature Communications.

Krause, C, Kimbrough, A, Gagan, MK, Hopcroft, P, Dunbar, G, Hantoro, W, Hellstrom, J, Cheng, H, Edwards, RL, Wong, H, Suwargadi, B, Valdes, PJ & Rifai, H 2024, 'Tropical vegetation productivity and atmospheric methane over the last 40,000 years from model simulations and stalagmites in Sulawesi, Indonesia', Quaternary Research. https://doi.org/10.1017/qua.2023.75

Hopcroft, P & Gallagher, K 2023, 'Global variability in multi-century ground warming inferred from geothermal data', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 50, no. 13, e2023GL104631. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL104631

Armstrong, E, Tallavaara, M, Hopcroft, P & Valdes, PJ 2023, 'North African Humid Periods over the past 800000 years', Nature Communications, vol. 14, no. 1, 5549. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-41219-4

Hopcroft, P, Valdes, PJ, Shuman, B, Toohey, M & Sigl, M 2023, 'Relative importance of forcings and feedbacks in the Holocene temperature conundrum', Quaternary Science Reviews, vol. 319, 108322. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108322

Hopcroft, P, Pichat, S, Valdes, PJ & Kienast, S 2023, 'Sensitivity of the tropical dust cycle to glacial abrupt climate changes', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 50, no. 1, e2022GL101197. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101197

Hopcroft, P & Valdes, P 2022, 'Green Sahara tipping points in transient climate model simulations of the Holocene', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 17, no. 8, 085001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7c2b

Aubry, T, Farquharson, J, Rowell, C, Watt, S, Pinel, V, Beckett, F, Fasullo, J, Hopcroft, P, Pyle, D, Schmidt, A & Staunton Sykes, J 2022, 'Impact of climate change on volcanic processes: current understanding and future challenges', Bulletin of Volcanology, vol. 84, no. 6, 58, pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-022-01562-8

Askjaer, T, Zhang, Q, Schenk, F, Charpentier, F, Lu, Z, Brierley, C, Hopcroft, P, Jungclaus, J, Shi, X, Lohmann, G, Sun, W, Liu, J, Braconnot, P, Wu, Z, Yin, Q, Kang, Y & Yang, H 2022, 'Multi-centennial Holocene climate variability in proxy records and transient model simulations', Quaternary Science Reviews, vol. 296, 107801. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107801

Hopcroft, P & Valdes, PJ 2021, 'Paleoclimate-conditioning reveals a North Africa land-atmosphere tipping point', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118, no. 45, e2108783118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108783118

Williams, CJR, Sellar, A, Ren, X, Haywood, A, Hopcroft, P, Hunter, S, Roberts, WHG, Smith, RS, Stone, EJ, Tindall, JC & Lunt, DJ 2021, 'Simulation of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period using HadGEM3: Experimental design and results from model-model and model-data comparison', Climate of the Past, vol. 17, no. 5, pp. 2139–2163. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2139-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-40

Hopcroft, P, Valdes, PJ & Ingram, W 2021, 'Using the mid-Holocene 'greening' of the Sahara to narrow acceptable ranges on climate model parameters', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 48, no. 6, e2020GL092043. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092043

Roberts, WHG & Hopcroft, P 2020, 'Controls on the tropical response to abrupt climate changes', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 47, no. 6, e2020GL087518. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087518


Ito, A, Li, T, Melton, J, Tian, H, Kleinen, T, Wang, W, Zhang, Z, Joos, F, Ciais, P, Hopcroft, PO, Beerling, DJ, Liu, X, Zhuang, Q, Zhu, Q, Peng, C, Cheng, K-Y, Fluet-Chouinard, E, McNicol, G, Patra, P, Poulter, B, Sitch, S, Riley, W & Zhu, Q 2023, 'Cold-season methane fluxes simulated by GCP-CH4 models', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 50, no. 14, e2023GL103037. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103037

Jiang, Z, Brierley, C, Bader, J, Braconnot, P, Erb, M, Hopcroft, P, Jiang, D, Jungclaus, J, Khon, V, Lohmann, G, Marti, O, Otto-bliesner, BL, Osman, M, Schneider, B, Shi, X, Thornalley, DJR, Tian, Z & Zhang, Q 2023, 'No consistent simulated trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the past 6,000 years', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 50, no. 10, e2023GL103078. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103078

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