Dr Peter Hopcroft BSc(Hons), PhD

Dr Peter Hopcroft

School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences
Birmingham Fellow

Contact details

Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences
University of Birmingham
B15 2TT

Peter is interested in understanding and predicting climate change in both the past and future. Peter specialises in using Earth System models, particularly as applied to the periods prior to industrialisation.

Peter's personal website


  • 2004: BSc(Hons) Physics with studies in musical performance, Imperial College London & Royal College of Music
  • 2009: PhD Geophysics, Imperial College London


Peter read physics and music at Imperial College in London, before completing a PhD in Geophysics, also at Imperial College. He was a post-doctoral researcher at the University of Bristol before joining the University of Birmingham in October 2017.


ORCID: 0000-0003-3694-9181
ISI Researcher ID: H-4957-2016

Research interests

Climate change; Earth System feedbacks; GCMs; Palaeoclimate; Uncertainty; Methane; Aerosols


P.O. Hopcroft, P.J. Valdes & J.O. Kaplan, (2018). Bayesian analysis of the glacial-interglacial methane increase constrained by stable isotopes and Earth System modelling, Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1002/2018GL077382, in press.

M. Kageyama, P. Braconnot, S. Harrison, A. Haywood, J. Jungclaus, B. Otto-Bliesner, J.-Y. Peterschmitt, A. Abe-Ouchi, S. Albani, P. Bartlein, C. Brierley, M. Crucifix, A. Dolan, L. Fernandez-Donado, H. Fischer,  P.O. Hopcroft, R. Ivanovic, F. Lambert, D. Lunt, N. Mahowald, W. Peltier, S. Phipps, D. Roche, G. Schmidt, L. Tarasov, P. Valdes, Q. Zhang & T. Zhou, (2018). The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan, Geoscientific Model Development, 11, 1033-1057, doi: 10.5194/gmd-11-1033- 2018.

M. Kageyama, S. Albani, P. Braconnot, S. Harrison, P.O. Hopcroft  R. Ivanovic, F. Lambert, O. Marti, W. Peltier, J-Y Peterschmitt, D. Roche, L Tarasov, X Zhang, E. Brady, A. Haywood, A. LeGrande, D. Lunt, N. Mahowald, U Mikolajewicz, K. Nisancioglu, B. Otto-Bliesner, H Renssen, R. Tomas, Q. Zhang, A. Abe-Ouchi, P. Bartlein, J. Cao, G. Lohmann, R. Ohgaito, X. Shi, E. Volodin, K. Yoshida, X Zhang, and W Zheng, (2018). The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 4: Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments Geoscientific Model Development , 10, 4035-4055 doi: 10.5194/gmd-10-4035-2017.

P. Valdes, E. Armstrong, M. Badger, C. Bradshaw, F. Bragg, M. Crucifix, T. Davies-Barnard, J.J. Day, A. Farnsworth, C. Gordon, P.O. Hopcroft , A. Kennedy, N. Lord, D. Lunt, A. Marzocchi, L. Parry, V. Pope, W. Roberts, E. Stone, G. Tourte & J. Williams, (2018). The BRIDGE HadCM3 family of climate models: HadCM3@Bristol v1.0, Geoscientific Model Development , 10, 3715-3743, doi: 10.5194/gmd-10-3715- 2017.

 P.O. Hopcroft, J. Kandlbauer, P.J. Valdes & R.S.J. Sparks (2017). Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions, Climate Dynamics, in press, doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3964-7.

P.O. Hopcroft (2017), Atmospheric science: Ancient ice and the global methane cycle, Nature, 548, 403-404, doi: 10.1038/548403a.

P.O. Hopcroft, P.J. Valdes, A.B. Harper & D.J. Beerling (2017). Multi vegetation model evaluation of the Green Sahara climate regime, Geophysical Research Letters, 44, 6804-6813, doi: 10.1002/2017GL073740.

P.O. Hopcroft, P.J. Valdes, F.M. O’Connor, J.O. Kaplan and D.J. Beerling (2017). Understanding the glacial methane cycle, Nature Communications, 8, 14383, doi: 10.1038/ncomms14383.

P.O. Hopcroft and P.J. Valdes (2015b). How well do simulated last glacial maximum tropical temperatures constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity?, Geophysical Research Letters, 42, 5533-5539, doi: 10.1002/2015GL064903.

P.O. Hopcroft, P.J. Valdes, S. Woodward and M. Joshi (2015). Last glacial maximum radiative forcing from mineral dust aerosols in an Earth system model, Journal of Geophysical Research, 120, 16, 8186-8205, doi: 10.1002/2015JD023742.

P.O. Hopcroft and P.J. Valdes, (2015a). Last glacial maximum constraints on the Earth System Model HadGEM2-ES, Climate Dynamics, 45(5), 1657-1672, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2421-0.

P.O. Hopcroft, P.J. Valdes, R. Wania and D.J. Beerling (2014). Limited response of peatland methane emissions to abrupt Atlantic Ocean circulation changes in glacial climates, Climate of the Past, 10, 137- 154, doi: 10.5194/cpd-10-137-2014.

J. Kandlbauer, P.O. Hopcroft, P.J. Valdes and R.S.J. Sparks, (2013). Climate and carbon cycle response to the 1815 Tambora volcanic eruption, Journal of Geophysical Research, 118(22), 12497-12507, doi: 10.1002/2013JD019767.

B. Ringeval,  P. O. Hopcroft, P.J. Valdes, P. Ciais, G. Ramstein, and A.J. Dolman and M. Kageyama, (2013). Response of methane emissions from wetlands to the Last Glacial Maximum and an idealized Dansgaard- Oeschger climate event: Insights from two models of different complexity, Climate of the Past, 9, 149-171, doi: 10.5194/cp-9-149-2013

A. Foley, D. Dalmonech, A. Friend, F. Aires, A. Archibald, P. Bartlein, L. Bopp, J. Chappellaz, P. Cox, N. Edwards, G. Feulner, P. Friedlingstein, S. P. Harrison, P.O. Hopcroft, C.D. Jones, J. Kolassa, J. Levine, I.C. Prentice, J. Pyle, N. Vazquez Riveiros, E.W. Wolff and S. Zaehle, (2013). Evaluation of biospheric components in Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: the state-of-the-art, Biogeosciences, 10, 8305-8328, doi: 10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013.

J. Melton, R. Wania, E. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. J. Bohn, C. A. Avis, D. Beerling, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev, S. N. Denisov, P. O. Hopcroft, D. P. Lettenmaier, W. J. Riley, J. Singarayer, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, S. Zürcher, V. Brovkin, P. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. Yu and J. O. Kaplan, (2013). Present state of global wetland and wetland methane modelling: Conclusions from a model intercomparison project (WETCHIMP), Biogeosciences, 10, 753-788, doi: 10.5194/bg-10-753-2013.

R. Wania, J.R. Melton, E. Hodson, B. Poulter, B. Ringeval, R. Spahni, T. J. Bohn, C. A. Avis, G. Chen, A. V. Eliseev,  P.O. Hopcroft, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, H. Tian, V. Brovkin, P. van Bodegom, T. Kleinen, Z. Yu, J. Singarayer, S. Zürcher, D. Lettenmaier, D. Beerling, S. Denisov, C. Prigent, F. Papa and J. O. Kaplan, (2013). Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: Methodology of a model intercomparison project (WETCHIMP), Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 617-641, doi: 10.5194/gmd- 6-617-2013

J. Levine, E.W.Wolff, P.O. Hopcroft and P.J. Valdes, (2012). Controls on the tropospheric oxidising capacity during an idealized Dansgaard-Oeschger event, and their implications for the rapid rises in atmospheric methane during the last glacial period, Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L12805, doi: 10.1029/22012GL051866.

P.O. Hopcroft, P.J. Valdes and D.J. Beerling, (2011). Simulating idealised Dansgaard-Oeschger events and their potential influence on the global methane cycle, Quaternary Science Reviews, 30, 3258-3268, doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2011.08.01.

P.O. Hopcroft, K. Gallagher and C.C. Pain, (2009b). A Bayesian partition modelling approach to resolve spatial variability in climate records from borehole temperature inversion, Geophysical Journal International, 178(2), 651-666, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2009.04192.x.

P.O. Hopcroft, K. Gallagher, C.C. Pain and F. Fang, (2009a). Three-dimensional simulation and inversion of borehole temperatures for reconstructing past climate in complex settings, Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, F02019, doi: 10.1029/2008JF001165.

 P.O. Hopcroft, K. Gallagher, and C.C. Pain, (2007). Inference of past climate from borehole temperature data using Bayesian Reversible Jump Markov chain Monte Carlo, Geophysical Journal International, 171(3), 1430-1439, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03596.x.