Socio-Economic Impact Model for the UK: SEIM-UK

SEIM-UK is a cutting-edge economic forecasting model that reveals how changes in local economies ripple across the UK, helping policymakers anticipate and respond to economic shifts.

Our model enables detailed, sector-specific and place-sensitive economic analysis, offering insights far beyond what traditional models provide. It is designed to meet the evolving needs of national and sub-national policymakers across the UK.

SEIM-UK is an econometric multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model for the UK economy. The SEIM UK has 30 sectors and covers 12 UK regions (ITL-1). The model includes substitution between labour and capital, allows for changes in total factor productivity, and solves through loops, enabling the forecasting of economic change between 2016 and 2040.

SEIM-UK in Action

The Economic Impact of the BBC in the West Midlands
In November 2024, BOP Consulting released a report examining the economic impact of the BBC in the West Midlands. City-REDI researchers were tasked with using the SEIM-UK model to provide analysis for the report.

US Tariffs on the UK Automotive Sector
In a 2025 blog, Matt Lyons and Huanjia Ma estimated that proposed 25% US tariffs on car imports could cost the UK £9.8 billion in GDP between 2025 and 2030, threatening 137,000 jobs. The West Midlands would bear the brunt, losing £6.2 billion—62% of the total impact.

Digital Skills Shortages Across UK Regions
In a report from December 2024, Huanjia Ma, Matt Lyons, Kostas Kollydas, and Anne Green examined regional disparities in digital skills demand, highlighting urgent needs across various sectors, occupations, and places.

Contact

Project Lead: Dr Matthew Lyons - m.lyons@bham.ac.uk

Project Support: Stuart Mitchell, Centre Manager - s.mitchell@bham.ac.uk

Research team

Dr Matthew Lyons, Research Fellow, City-REDI Institute, Birmingham Business School, University of Birmingham
Dr Huanjia Ma, Research Fellow, City-REDI Institute, Birmingham Business School, University of Birmingham
Professor Geoffrey Hewings, Emeritus Director of REAL; Emeritus Professor of Geography & Regional Science, Economics, and Urban & Regional Planning, University of Illinois
Professor Kurt Kratena, Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO) and Director of Centre of Economic Scenario Analysis and Research (CESAR)

Reports

Regional enquiry into the future of investment in the West Midlands

May 2025, Dr James Davies and Dr Matt Lyons

Balancing the Economic and Environmental Impacts of Net Zero: An Environmentally Extended Input-Output Approach

May 2025, Dr Matt Lyons

The BBC in the West Midlands

November 2024, Jonathan Todd, Poppy Lawrence Carr, Rhiannon Davies and Yuhan Ji, BOP Consulting; Dr Matthew Lyons and Dr Huanjia Ma.

Improving economic statistics in the creative industries: Towards multi-regional creative industries satellite accounts

April 2024, Dr Matt Lyons, City-REDI and Kevin Connolly, University of Strathclyde.

Digital Skills Demand and Shortages and Their Impact on the UK Regions

December 2024, Dr Huanjia Ma, Dr Konstantinos Kollydas, Dr Matt Lyons and Professor Anne Green.

Policy briefings

Preparing the region for ‘peak car’

January 2025, Dr Sara Hassan and Dr Matt Lyons

Addressing the local authority financial crises

September 2024, Dr Matthew Lyons, Professor Kurt Kratena

Trade and the West Midlands Economy (WME)

January 2020, Dr Andre Carrascal-Incera, Research Fellow, City-REDI, Professor Raquel Ortega-Argiles and Geoffrey Hewings, Emeritus Director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL), and Professor Emeritus, University of Illinois.

The Structure of the West Midlands Economy: West Midlands in the UK context,