José Pascal da Rocha

Faultlines of Mediation: The Case of Ukraine 2014–2022

Supervisors: Professor Stefan Wolff and Dr Asaf Siniver

The Ukraine conflict between 2014 and 2022 was one of the most intensively mediated crises of the post-Cold War era. Yet successive efforts — the Minsk I and Minsk II agreements, the Normandy Format summits, and the OSCE-led Trilateral Contact Group — failed to produce a durable political settlement. This research investigates why, and in doing so, challenges conventional accounts that attribute failure to bad faith, asymmetric power, or insufficient political will alone.

At the heart of this study is the concept of 'mediation faultlines': the structural fractures in recognition, mandate, and legitimacy that constrain mediator agency before negotiations begin. The research argues that the OSCE and Normandy Format processes were shaped by a foundational condition of 'engaging without recognizing' — a diplomatic posture in which mediating actors interact with parties whose legal or political status remains deliberately ambiguous. This ambiguity was not merely a background condition; it actively structured what could be proposed, who could be included, and what kinds of agreements were politically sustainable.

The study is organized around interconnected questions, such as:

  • How did the structural condition of “engaging without recognizing” shape the design of OSCE and Normandy Format mediation between 2014 and 2022?
  • What were the specific faultlines — in mandate, representation, and status framing — that constrained mediation outcomes in the Donbas negotiations?

Biography

Pascal da Rocha is a mediation practitioner and international adviser with over three decades of experience spanning military peacekeeping, conflict diplomacy, and high-level mediation practice. He currently serves as Political Adviser to the Europe of Sovereign Nations group at the European Parliament, Senior Adviser to the African Union’s Mediation and Dialogue Division, and Team Leader of the ICGLR Mediation Coordination Mechanism (GFA/GIZ). He is a rostered expert with the OSCE, DPA/UNDP, and Interpeace, and previously served as a Dialogue Facilitation Officer with the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (Kyiv, 2020–2022). Earlier in his career he served as a Major in the German Armed Forces, with peacekeeping deployments across Cambodia, Somalia, the Western Balkans, East Timor, and Afghanistan.

He is the author of The International Mediator – A Handbook (six language editions), the AU Mediation Support Handbook, and the ECOWAS Dialogue and Mediation Handbook, alongside peer-reviewed articles on mediation theory and peace process design. He has taught at Cardozo School of Law and Columbia University, in the City of New York IESEG School of Management Paris/Lille, and IRI-PUC/Rio.

Research interests

  • International mediation theory, design, and evaluation
  • Diplomatic ambiguity and contested recognition in peace processes
  • OSCE mediation, European security, and frozen conflicts
  • Grey zone conflicts and hybrid mediation environments
  • Ukraine conflict: the Minsk process and Normandy Format
  • African Union mediation architecture and the Great Lakes region
  • Inclusive peace processes and gender-responsive mediation (WPS frameworks)
  • National dialogue design and post-transition political settlements

Qualifications

    • PhD Candidate, Political Science and International Studies, University of Birmingham (2017–present)
    • Master in Advanced Studies Mediation in Peace Processes, ETH Zürich (2023–2026)
    • MMICS, Master in Media and Intercultural Communication Studies, Sofia, Bulgaria (2005–2007)
    • J.D., Law, University of Cologne / Sorbonne 1 Paris (1999–2005)

Selected Conference Papers and Keynotes

ICGLR Mediation Conference, Kinshasa (December 2025) – Presentation on the ICGLR Mediation Strategy and launch of the ICGLR Community of Practice (English and French).

SIETAR Europe Conference (June 2023) – Keynote: “Shifting from WEIRD to Embracing Hybridity – The Art of Unlearning, Rethinking and Adaptability.”

PIN Book Conference, Abu Dhabi (May 2023) –Contribution to conference on Negotiating Identity Conflicts in a Fragmented World Order.

IACM / Patchworked Peacemaking Workshop (March 2023) –Paper: “Norms Diffusion and Mediation in Fragile States: The ECOWAS Intervention in the Mali 2020/2022 Political Crisis” (with Dr Brown Odigie).

IACM Annual Conference (July 2021) –Paper: “Mediation in Fragile States: The ECOWAS Intervention in Mali.”

Peaceland Talks, National University Kyiv-Mohyla (September 2020) – Inclusion of Civil Society into Track One Peace Processes.

International Studies Association, 60th Annual Conference (March 2019) –Panel with I. William Zartman; paper: “Chameleons and Sandstorms: Mediating Insurgencies, Tribal Warfare, and Identities.”

Varieties of Peace Asian Conference (October 2019) – The Changing Nature of International Mediation.

OSCE Workshop on Mediation and WPS, Vienna (November 2017) –Women Mediators in Track I Processes in the Mediterranean Environment.

Selected publications

Norms Diffusion and Mediation in Fragile States: The ECOWAS Intervention in the Mali 2020/2022 Political Crisis (with Dr Brown Odigie), Journal of African Peace and Security, Vol 2, Nr 1, Nov 2024.

The International Mediator – A Handbook (Ukrainian translation, Folke Bernadotte Akademin, 2022).

African Union Mediation Support Handbook (2nd edition, AU Press, 2021).

Organizational Culture (Chapter 18), in: Spangler and Haywood (eds.), The AMA Management Body of Knowledge (AMA Press, 2020).

Conflict, Systems, and Approaches to Conflict Management, in: Bhattacharyya (ed.), Emerging Approaches for Conflict Resolution in Organizations (IGI Global, 2019).

The Changing Nature of International Mediation, Special Issue, Global Policy, doi:10.1111/1758-5899.12683.

The International Mediator – A Handbook (French and Portuguese translations, Peter Lang Publishing, 2019).

The International Mediator – A Handbook (Russian translation, Southern Federal University Press, 2019).

Political Mediation in Modern Conflict Resolution: Emerging Research and Opportunities (IGI Global, 2018).

The Africanization of Democracy: Elections and Conflict Prevention in Sub-Saharan Africa (with Ratha Khuon), Sociology and Anthropology, 6(1), 2018.

ECOWAS Dialogue and Mediation Handbook (ECOWAS Press, 2018).

African Union Mediation Support Handbook (ACCORD/AU Press, 2014).

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