Professor Tom Marshall MB ChB, MSc, PhD, MRGP, FFPH

Professor Tom Marshall

Institute of Applied Health Research
Professor of Public Health and Primary Care

Contact details

Primary Care Clinical Sciences
Institute of Applied Health Research
College of Medical and Dental Sciences
University of Birmingham
Birmingham, B15 2TT

Tom Marshall is a Professor of Public Health and Primary Care. His main medical speciality is in Public Health Medicine but he also has trained in General Practice and has studied Health Economics.

Tom has over 70 peer reviewed publications to date, over 35 as first author and a significant number as sole author. His research publications cover a number of related areas.

- Cardiovascular disease prevention and in particular organising primary care services to improve the eifficiency of cardiovascular disease prevention in primary care.

- Patient preferences in relation to taking medication to prevent cardiovascular diseases.

- The analysis of electronic primary care records to understand primary health care, prescribing and epidemiology.

- The use of statistical process control for quality improvement in health care.

- Factors influencing General Practitioner decision making in relation to cardiovascular prevention

- The use of electronic primary care records to assist earlier identification of chronic diseases including: bowel cancer, patients at high risk of cardiovascular disease; left ventricular systolic dysfunction.

Tom has contributed to local, national and international media in relation to his research, particularly in relation to prevention of cardiovascular disease.


  • Professor of Public Health and Primary Care
  • Fellow of the Faculty of Public Health (UK), 2005
  • PhD in Public Health: An economic evaluation of cardiovascular disease prevention in primary care, University of Birmingham, 2005.
  • Member of the Faculty of Public Health Medicine (UK), 1997.
  • MSc. Public Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, 1995
  • Member of the Royal College of General Practitioners 1994.
  • MSc. Health Economics (distinction), University of York, 1992.
  • MB ChB University of Edinburgh, 1987. 


After graduating from the University of Edinburgh in 1987, Tom undertook clinical work in the UK and South Africa. On returning to the UK he took a MSc Health Economics and completed vocational training in General Practice. He then followed a career in Public Health. He switched to an academic public health post in 1998 and since then has been a lecturer, then senior lecturer and from 2013 as Professor of Public Health and Primary Care in University of Birmingham.

 From 2003 to 2004 he spent a year as a Commonwealth Fund Harkness Fellow in Health Policy in Harvard Medical School.

 From 2005 to 2010 he was Programme Director of the University of Birmingham Master of Public Health, since then he has mainly pursued research interests in health services research, with a focus on primary care.


Postgraduate supervision

Tom has supervised nine doctoral theses to completion. He is interested in supervising students undertaking research using electronic primary care records.


Tom’s past research includes a seminal paper on the potential for taxation to influence diet achieved worldwide media coverage and has catalysed subsequent papers and policy developments.

He has published on the use of statistical process control for quality improvement in health care and for monitoring mortality rates in primary care. He currently jointly leads the Centre for Improvement Science.

He has researched patient preferences in relation to taking drug treatments to prevent cardiovascular disease.

He has a longstanding interest in the economics of cardiovascular prevention in primary care and has published a number of papers on targeted case-finding for cardiovascular prevention.

He has published several papers on the effects of variation in the measurement of risk factors on clinical decision making.

 Tom’s recent research focuses on the use of routinely available data including electronic primary care records for research and to target health services. This includes case-finding for cardiovascular disease prevention and case-finding for early diagnosis of cancer. He also leads a group providing cardiovascular statistics and data for the British Heart Foundation.

 Tom holds a sub-licence for a large dataset of anonymised electronic primary care records.

 Tom is currently Deputy Director of the West Midlands Collaboration for Applied Health Research and Care – CLAHRC WM, a five year programme of health services research. He was previously Deputy Director of its predecessor the Birmingham and Black Country CLAHRC.

Other activities

  • Former member of the editorial board of the Health Technology Assessment journal.
  • Currently a reviewer for many grant awarding bodies and academic journals.
  • Former member of the NIHR Research for Patient Benefit grant awarding committee.
  • Currently a member of the NIHR Programme Grants for Applied Research grant awarding committee



  1. Adderley, N., Nirantharakumar, K., Marshall, T. Risk of stroke and transient ischaemic attack in patients with a diagnosis of ‘resolved’ atrial fibrillation. BMJ 2 Apr 2018 (Accepted/In press)
  2. Adderley N, Mallett S, Marshall T, Ghosh S, Rayman G, Bellary S, Coleman J. Akiboye F, Toulis K, Nirantharakumar K. Temporal and external validation of a prediction model for adverse outcomes in inpatients with diabetes Diabetic Medicine DME-2017-00578.R2 [In press]
  3. Turner G, Calvert M, Feltham MG, Ryan R, Finnikin S, Marshall T. Clinical & Demographic Characteristics Associated with Sub-optimal Primary Stroke/TIA Prevention: Retrospective Analysis Stroke Decision Letter: January 3, 2018 MS ID#: STROKE/2017/020080R1 [In press]
  4. Chandan J, Thomas T, Lee S, Marshall T, Willis B, Gill P, Nirantharakumar K. The Association between Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura (ITP) and Cardiovascular Disease (CVD): A retrospective cohort study Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis 2018 DOI: 10.1111/jth.13940
  5. Turner GM, Backman R, McMullan C, Mathers J, Marshall T, Calvert M. Establishing research priorities relating to the long-term impact of TIA and minor stroke through stakeholder-centred consensus. Research Involvement and Engagement 2018; 4:2. DOI 10.1186/s40900-018-0089-z


  1. Chisnell JM, Marshall T, Hyde C, Zhelev Z, Fleming LE. A content analysis of the representation of statins in the British newsprint media BMJ Open 2017;0:e012613. doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2016-012613
  2. Finnikin S, Ryan R, Marshall T. Statin initiations and QRISK2 scoring in UK general practice: A THIN database study. British Journal of General Practice 2017 Dec;67(665):e881-e887. doi: 10.3399/bjgp17X693485. Epub 2017 Oct 23.
  3. Stuart K, Adderley NJ, Marshall T, Rayman G, Sitch A, Manley S, Ghosh S, Toulis KA, Nirantharakumar K. Predicting inpatient hypoglycaemia in hospitalized patients with diabetes: a retrospective analysis of 9,584 admissions with diabetes. Diabetic Medicine 2017 Oct;34(10):1385-1391. doi: 10.1111/dme.13409.
  4. Isaew A, Adderley N, Ryan R, Fitzmaurice D, Marshall T. The treatment of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation in UK primary care. Heart 2017 Jun 1. pii: heartjnl-2016-310927. doi: 10.1136/heartjnl-2016-310927.
  5. Toulis KA, Willis BH, Marshall T, Kumarendran B, Gokhale K, Ghosh S, Thomas GN, Cheng KK, Narendran P, Hanif W, Nirantharakumar K. All-Cause Mortality in Patients With Diabetes Under Treatment With Dapagliflozin: A Population-Based, Open-Cohort Study in The Health Improvement Network Database. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2017 May 1;102(5):1719-1725. doi: 10.1210/jc.2016-3446.
  6. Kidney E, Greenfield S, Berkman L, Dowswell G, Hamilton W, Wood S, Marshall T. Cancer suspicion in general practice, urgent referral, and time to diagnosis: a population-based GP survey nested within a feasibility study using information technology to flag-up patients with symptoms of colorectal cancer BJGP Open 2017; 1 (3). DOI:
  7. Aiyegbusi OL, Kyte D, Cockwell P, Marshall T, Dutton M, Slade A, Marklew N, Price G, Verdi R, Waters J, Sharpe K, Calvert M. Using Patient-Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) to promote quality of care and safety in the management of patients with Advanced Chronic Kidney disease (PRO-trACK project): a mixed-methods project protocol. BMJ Open. 2017 Jun 30;7(6):e016687. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-016687.
  8. Aiyegbusi OL, Kyte D, Cockwell P, Marshall T, Gheorghe A, Keeley T, Slade A, Calvert M. Measurement properties of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) used in adult patients with chronic kidney disease: A systematic review. PLoS One. 2017 Jun 21;12(6):e0179733. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0179733. eCollection 2017.
  9. Adderley N., Ryan R., Marshall T. The role of contraindications in anticoagulant prescribing to atrial fibrillation patients British Journal of General Practice 2017 Sep;67(662):e588-e597. doi: 10.3399/bjgp17X691685.
  10. Schmidtke KA, Aujla N, Marshall T, Hussain A, Hodgkinson GP, Arheart K, Marti J, Birnbach DJ, Vlaev I. Using environmental engineering to increase hand hygiene compliance: a cross-over study protocol. BMJ Open. 2017 Sep 11;7(9):e017108. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-017108.
  11. Taylor CJ, Hobbs FDR, Marshall T, Leyva-Leon F, Gale N. From breathless to failure: Symptom onset and diagnostic meaning in patients with heart failure. A qualitative study BMJ Open 2017 Mar 10;7(3):e013648. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-013648.
  12. Holt TA, Dalton A, Marshall T, Fay M, Qureshi N, Kirkpatrick S, Hislop J, Lasserson D, Kearley K, Mollison J, Yu LM, Hobbs FDR, Fitzmaurice D. An automated software system to promote anticoagulation and reduce stroke risk: cluster randomised controlled trial Stroke 2017 Mar;48(3):787-790. doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.116.015468. Epub 2017 Jan 24.
  13. Diwakar L, Cummins C, Ryan R, Marshall T, Lilford R, Roberts T. Adrenaline Autoinjector Prescriptions for Children in the UK: A retrospective cohort study using the Health Improvement Network database British Journal of General Practice 2017 13 March 2017; bjgp17X689917. DOI:
  14. Gale N, Dowswell G, Greenfield G, Marshall T. Street-level diplomacy? Communicative and adaptive work at the front line of implementing public health policies in primary care Social Science & Medicine 2017 Mar;177:9-18. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2017.01.046. Epub 2017 Jan 24.
  15. Crossan C, Lord J, Ryan R, Nherera L, Marshall T. Cost effectiveness of case-finding strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a modelling study. British Journal of General Practice 2017 Jan;67(654):e67-e77. doi: 10.3399/bjgp16X687973. Epub 2016 Nov 7.
  16. Taylor CJ, Ryan R, Nichols L, Gale N, Hobbs R, Marshall T. Survival following a diagnosis of heart failure in primary care Family Practice 2017 Jan 30. pii: cmw145. doi: 10.1093/fampra/cmw145.


  1. Turner GM, Calvert M, Feltham MG, Ryan R, Fitzmaurice D, Cheng KK, Marshall T. Under-prescribing of Prevention Drugs for the Primary Prevention of Stroke and Transient Ischemic Attack in UK General Practice: Retrospective Analysis PLoS Medicine 2016 Nov 15;13(11):e1002169. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002169. eCollection 2016.
  2. Turner GM, Calvert M, Feltham MG, Ryan R, Marshall T. Ongoing impairments following transient ischaemic attack: retrospective cohort study. European Journal of Neurology 2016 Nov;23(11):1642-1650. doi: 10.1111/ene.13088. Epub 2016 Jul 19.
  3. Jeddian A, Hemming K, Lindenmeyer A, Rashidian A, Sayadi L, Jafari N, Malekzadeh R, Marshall T. Evaluation of a critical care outreach service in a middle-income country: A stepped wedge cluster randomized trial and nested qualitative study Journal of Critical Care Dec 2016; 36: 212-217
  4. Jeddian AR, Lindenmeyer A, Marshall T, Rashidian A, Sayadi L, Jafari N. Caring for Acutely Ill Patients in General Wards: A Qualitative Study. Arch Iran Med. 2016 Sep;19(9):639-44. doi: 0161909/AIM.007.
  5. Martin J, Girling A, Nirantharakumar K, Ryan R, Marshall T, Hemming K. Intra-cluster and inter-period correlation coefficients for cross-sectional cluster randomised controlled trials for type-2 diabetes in UK primary care Trials. 2016; 17: 402. Published online 2016 Aug 15.  doi:  10.1186/s13063-016-1532-9
  6. Clegg A, Bates C, Young J, Ryan R, Nichols L, Teale EA, Mohammed MA, Parry J, Marshall T. Development and validation of an electronic frailty index using routine primary care electronic health record data Age and Ageing 2016 May;45(3):353-60. doi: 10.1093/ageing/afw039. Epub 2016 Mar 3.
  7. Hemming K, Ryan R, Gill P, Westerby P, Jolly K, Marshall T. Targeted case finding in the prevention of cardiovascular disease: a stepped wedge cluster randomised controlled trial. British Journal of General Practice 2016 Oct;66(651):e758-67. doi: 10.3399/bjgp16X686629. Epub 2016 Aug 15.
  8. Nichols L, Ryan R, Connor C, Birchwood M, Marshall T. Derivation of a prediction model for a diagnosis of depression in young adults: a matched case-control study using electronic primary care records. Early Intervention in Psychiatry 2016 Mar 30. doi: 10.1111/eip.12332.
  9. Sidhu MS, Griffith L, Jolly K, Gill P, Marshall T, Gale NK. Long-term conditions, self-management and systems of support: an exploration of health beliefs and practices within the Sikh community, Birmingham, UK. Ethnicity and Health 2016 Oct;21(5):498-514. doi: 10.1080/13557858.2015.1126560. Epub 2016 Jan 13.


  1. Merat S, Poustchi H, Hemming K, Jafari E, Radmard AR, Nateghi A, Shiravi Khuzani A, Khoshnia M, Marshall T, Malekzadeh R. PolyPill for Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in an Urban Iranian Population with Special Focus on Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis: A Pragmatic Randomized Controlled Trial within a Cohort (PolyIran - Liver) - Study Protocol. Archives of Iranian Medicine 2015 Aug;18(8):515-23. doi: 015188/AIM.009.
  2. Irwin R, Stokes T, Marshall T. Practice-level quality improvement interventions in primary care: a review of systematic reviews. Primary Health Care Research & Development 2015 Nov;16(6):556-77. doi: 10.1017/S1463423615000274
  3. Jadhakhan F, Marshall T, Gill P. A systematic review investigating the cumulative incidence of chronic kidney disease in young adults with impaired glucose tolerance. Systematic Reviews 2015 May 13;4:69. doi: 10.1186/s13643-015-0059-6.
  4. Kidney E, Berkman L, Macherianakis A, Morton D, Dowswell G, Hamilton W, Ryan R, Awbery H, Greenfield S, Marshall T. Preliminary results of a feasibility study of the use of information technology for identification of suspected colorectal cancer in primary care: the CREDIBLE study. British Journal of Cancer 2015 Mar 31;112 Suppl:S70-6. doi: 10.1038/bjc.2015.45.
  5. Haroon S, Adab P, Riley RD, Marshall T, Lancashire R, Jordan RE. Predicting risk of COPD in primary care: development and validation of a clinical risk score. BMJ Open Respiratory Research 2015 Mar 27;2(1):e000060. doi: 10.1136/bmjresp-2014-000060. eCollection 2015.
  6. Sidhu M, Gale N, Gill PS, Marshall T, Jolly K. A critique of the design, implementation, and delivery of a culturally-tailored self-management education intervention: a qualitative evaluation BMC Health Services Research 2015, 15:54doi:10.1186/s12913-015-0712-8
  7. Toulis KA, Nirantharakumar K, Ryan R, Marshall T, Hemming K. Bisphosphonates and glucose homeostasis: a population-based, retrospective cohort study. Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism 2015 May;100(5):1933-40. doi: 10.1210/jc.2014-3481. Epub 2015 Feb
  8. Ostovaneh MR, Poustchi H, Hemming K, Marjani H, Pourshams A, Nateghi A, Majed M, Navabakhsh B, Khoshnia M, Jaafari E, Mohammadifard N, Malekzadeh F, Merat S, Sadeghi M, Naemi M, Etemadi A, Thomas GN, Sarrafzadegan N, Cheng K, Marshall T, Malekzadeh R. Polypill for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (PolyIran): study design and rationale for a pragmatic cluster randomized controlled trial. European Journal of Preventive Cardiology 2015 Dec;22(12):1609-17. doi: 10.1177/2047487314550803. Epub 2014 Sep 17.


  1. Moran GM, Calvert M, Feltham MG, Marshall T. Retrospective case review of missed opportunities for primary prevention of stroke and TIA in primary care: protocol paper BMJ Open 2014;4:e006622doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2014-006622
  2. Dalton AR, Marshall T, McManus RJ. The NHS Health Check programme: a comparison against established standards for screening. British Journal of General Practice 2014 Oct;64(627):530-1. doi: 10.3399/bjgp14X681997.
  3. Moran GM, Fletcher B, Feltham MG, Calvert M, Sackley C, Marshall T. Fatigue, psychological and cognitive impairment following transient ischaemic attack and minor stroke: a systematic review European Journal of Neurology 2014 Oct;21(10):1258-67. doi: 10.1111/ene.12469.
  4. Caley M, Burn S, Rouse A, Marshall T. Impact of Implementing Government Proposals to Increase the QOF Upper Payment Threshold in England British Journal of General Practice January 1, 2014; 64(618): e54-e59. doi: 10.3399/bjgp14X676465


  1. Moran GM, Fletcher B, Calvert M, Feltham MG, Sackley C, Marshall T. A systematic review investigating fatigue, psychological and cognitive impairment following TIA and minor stroke: protocol paper. Systematic Reviews 2013 Sep 8;2:72. doi: 10.1186/2046-4053-2-72.
  2. Holt TA, Fitzmaurice DA, Marshall T, Fay M, Qureshi N, Dalton AR, Hobbs FD, Lasserson DS, Kearley K, Hislop J, Jin J. AUtomated Risk Assessment for Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation (AURAS-AF) - an automated software system to promote anticoagulation and reduce stroke risk: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial. Trials 2013 Nov 13;14(1):385
  3. Marshall T. Physical activity and atrial fibrillation Heart published online September 23, 2013 doi: 10.1136/heartjnl-2013-304541
  4. Nirantharakumar K, Saeede M, Wilson I, Marshall T, Coleman JJ. In-hospital mortality and length of stay in patients with diabetes having foot disease Journal of Diabetes and its Complications Available online 15 June 2013
  5. Nirantharakumar K, Hemming K, Narendran P, Marshall T, Coleman JJ. A prediction model for adverse outcome in hospitalized patients with diabetes Diabetes Care 2013 Nov;36(11):3566-72. doi: 10.2337/dc13-0452. Epub 2013 Sep 11.
  6. Wu J, Yao GL, Zhu S, Mohammed MA. Marshall T. Patient factors influencing the prescribing of lipid lowering drugs for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in UK general practice: a national retrospective cohort study PLoS One 2013 8(7): e67611. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0067611
  7. Mohammed MA, Marshall T, Nirantharakumar K, Stevens A, Fitzmaurice D. Patterns of warfarin use in subgroups of patients with atrial fibrillation: a cross-sectional analysis of 430 general practices in the United Kingdom PLoS One. 2013 May 2;8(5):e61979. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone
  8. Talaei M, Sarrafzadegan N, Sadeghi M, Oveisgharan S, Marshall T, Thomas GN, Iranipour R. Incidence of cardiovascular diseases in an Iranian population: the Isfahan cohort study. Arch Iran Med. 2013 Mar; 16(3):138-44. doi: 013163/AIM.004.
  9. Nirantharakumar K, Toulis KA, Wijesinghe H, Mastan MS, Srikantharajah M, Bhatta S, Marshall T, Coleman JJ. Impact of diabetes on inpatient mortality and length of stay for elderly patients presenting with fracture of the proximal femur J Diabetes Complications 2013 May-Jun;27(3):208-10. doi: 10.1016/j.jdiacomp.


  1. Marshall T, Caley M, Hemming K, Gill P, Gale N, Jolly K. Mixed methods evaluation of targeted case finding for cardiovascular disease prevention using a stepped wedged cluster RCT BMC Public Health 2012; 12:908. doi:10.1186/1471-2458-12-908
  2. Mohammed MA, Marshall T, Gill P. The Effect of Chance Variability in Blood Pressure Readings on the Decision Making of General Practitioners: An Internet-Based Case Vignette Study. PLoS One 2012; 7(11): e46556. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0046556
  3. Nirantharakumar K, Marshall T, Hemming K, Narendran P, Coleman J.J. Electronic prescription data can identify ‘lost’ discharge codes for diabetes .Diabetic Medicine. 2012 Dec;29(12):e430-5. doi: 10.1111/dme.12020.
  4. Gale N, Marshall T, Bramley G. Starting and staying on preventive medication for cardiovascular disease Current Opinion in Cardiology 27(5):533-541, September 2012. doi: 10.1097/HCO.0b013e328356dae5
  5. Nirantharakumar K, Marshall T, Kennedy A, Narendran P, Hemming K, Coleman JJ. Hypoglycaemia is associated with increased length of stay and mortality in people with diabetes who are hospitalized. Diabet Med. 2012 Dec;29(12):e445-8. doi: 10.1111/dme.12002.
  6. Nirantharakumar K, Marshall T, Hodson J, Narendran P, Deeks J, Coleman JJ, Ferner RE. Hypoglycemia in Non-Diabetic In-Patients: Clinical or Criminal? PLoS One 2012; 7(7): e40384. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0040384
  7. Nirantharakumar K, Chen YF, Marshall T, Webber J, Coleman JJ. Clinical decision support systems in the care of inpatients with diabetes in non-critical care setting: systematic review. Diabetic Medicine 2012 Jun;29(6):698-708. doi: 10.1111/j.1464-5491.2011.03540.x.
  8. Masoudkabir F, Toghianifar N, Talaie M, Sadeghi M, Sarrafzadegan N, Mohammadifard N, Marshall T Thomas GN. Socioeconomic status and incident cardiovascular disease in a developing country: findings from the Isfahan cohort study (ICS) International Journal of Public Health 2012 Jun;57(3):561-8.
  9. Mohammed M.A., El Sayed C., Marshall T. Patient and other factors influencing the prescribing of cardiovascular prevention therapy in the general practice setting with and without nurse assessment. Medical Decision Making 2012 May-Jun;32(3):498-506.
  10. Talaei M, Thomas GN, Marshall T, Sadeghi M, Iranipour R, Oveisgharan S, Sarrafzadegan N. Appropriate cut-off values of waist circumference to predict cardiovascular outcomes: 7 years follow-up in an Iranian population Internal Medicine 2012;51(2):139-46.
  11. Lambert A.M., Burden A.C., Chambers J., Marshall T. Cardiovascular screening for men at high risk in Heart of Birmingham teaching Primary Care Trust: the “deadly trio” programme Journal of Public Health 2012 Mar;34(1):73-82. doi: 10.1093/pubmed/fdr052 First published online: July 12, 2011


  1. Gale N, Greenfield S, Gill P, Gutridge K, Marshall T. Patient and general practitioner attitudes to taking medication to prevent cardiovascular disease after receiving detailed information on risks and benefits of treatment: a qualitative study BMC Family Practice 2011, 12:59doi:10.1186/1471-2296-12-59.
  2. Marshall T, Taylor B, Hothersall E, Perez-Martin L. Plagiarism: a case study of quality improvement in a taught postgraduate programme Medical Teacher Jul 2011; 33(7): e375–e381.
  3. Marshall T, Lancashire R, Sharp D, Peters TJ, Cheng KK, Hamilton W. The diagnostic performance of scoring systems to identify symptomatic colorectal cancer compared to current referral guidance Gut 2011 Sep;60(9):1242-8. Epub 2011 Feb 25


  1. Talaei M, Sadeghi M, Marshall T, Thomas GN, Kabiri P, Hoseini S, Sarafzadegan N. Impact of metabolic syndrome on ischemic heart disease – a prospective cohort study in an Iranian adult population: Isfahan Cohort Study Nutrition, Metabolism and Cardiovascular Diseases 2010 doi:10.1016/j.numecd.2010.08.003
  2. Pennant M, Davenport C, Bayliss S, Greenheld W, Marshall T, Hyde C. Community Programs for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease: A Systematic Review American Journal of Epidemiology 2010; 172 (5): 501-516. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwq171
  3. Marshall TP. Targeted case finding for cardiovascular prevention. British Medical Journal 2010; 340:1376.
  4. Malekzadeh F, Marshall T, Pourshams A, Gharravi M, Aslani A, Nateghi A, Rastegarpanah M, Khoshnia M, Semnani S, Salahi R, Thomas GN, Larijani B, Cheng KK, Malekzadeh R. A pilot double-blind randomised placebo-controlled trial of the effects of fixed-dose combination therapy (“polypill”) on cardiovascular risk factors International Journal of Clinical Practice 2010 Aug;64(9):1220-7. DOI: 10.1111/j.1742-1241.2010.02412.x
  5. Warren RE, Marshall T, Padfield PL, Chrubasik S. Variability of Office, 24-hour Ambulatory and Self-Monitored Blood Pressure Measurements British Journal of General Practice 2010 Sep;60(578):675-80.
  6. Marshall T. The effect of blood pressure and cholesterol variability on the precision of Framingham cardiovascular risk estimation: a simulation study Journal of Human Hypertension 2010; 24, 631–638. []


  1. Hamilton W, Lancashire R, Sharp D, Peters TJ, Cheng KK, Marshall T. The risk of colorectal cancer with symptoms at different ages and between the sexes: a case-control study BMC Medicine 2009 7:17. doi:10.1186/1741-7015-7-17 PMID: 19374736


  1. Rastegarpanah M, Malekzadeh F, Thomas GN, Mohagheghi A, Cheng KK, Marshall T. A New Horizon in Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease, Can We Prevent Heart Attack by "Heart Polypill"? Archives of Iranian Medicine 2008; 11:306-13. PMID: 18426322
  2. Marshall T, Westerby P, Chen J, Fairfield M, Harding J, Westerby R, Ahmad R, Middleton J The Sandwell Project: a controlled evaluation of a programme of targeted screening for prevention of cardiovascular disease in primary care BMC Public Health 2008, 8:73. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-8-73. PMCID: PMC2278139
  3. Marshall T. Identification of patients for clinical risk assessment by prediction of cardiovascular risk using default risk factor values BMC Public Health 2008, 8:25. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-8-25. PMCID: PMC2244603
  4. Hamilton W, Lancashire R., Sharp D., Peters T.J., Cheng K.K., Marshall T. The importance of anaemia in diagnosing colorectal cancer: a case-control study using electronic primary care records. British Journal of Cancer 2008 98, 323-327. PMID: 18219289 doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6604165
  5. Vamvakopoulos JE, Kountouri M, Marshall T., Greenfield SM. Lifestyle or life-saving medicines? A primary healthcare professional and consumer opinion survey on over-the-counter statins Annals of Pharmacotherapy 2008; 42: 413-420.


  1. Marshall T. Blood pressure variability: the challenge of variation American Journal of Hypertension 2008; 21(1):3-4. doi:10.1038/ajh.2007.20 PMID: 18091733
  2. Harrison W.N., Lancashire RJ, Marshall TP. Variation in recorded blood pressure terminal digit bias in general practice. Journal of Human Hypertension 2007; 22: 163-167
  3. Marshall T., Tennant R., Harrison W.N. Estimating the proportion of young adults on antihypertensive treatment that have been correctly diagnosed Journal of Human Hypertension 2007 22, 96 – 101.
  4. Marshall T., Mohammed M.A. Case-mix and the use of control charts in monitoring mortality rates after coronary artery bypass BMC Health Services Research 2007, 7:63.


  1. Birmingham Patient Preferences Group Bryan S., Gill P., Greenfield S., Gutridge K., Marshall T. The myth of agency and patient choice in health care? The case of drug treatments to prevent coronary disease Social Science & Medicine 2006 63: 2698-2701.
  2. Birmingham Patient Preferences Group Bryan S., Gill P., Greenfield S., Gutridge K., Marshall T. Predictors of patients' preferences for treatments to prevent heart disease Heart 2006; 92: 1651-1655.
  3. Marshall T. The cost-effectiveness of drug treatments for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: a modelling study European Journal of Cardiovascular Prevention & Rehabilitation 2006; 13(4):523-528.
  4. Marshall T. The value of information: modelling the efficiency of strategies for identifying high-risk patients for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease Informatics in Primary Care 2006; 14:85-92.
  5. Marshall T. Misleading measurements: modelling the effects of blood pressure misclassification in a United States population Medical Decision Making 2006; 26: 624-632.
  6. Marshall T. The use of cardiovascular risk factor information in practice databases: making the best of patient data British Journal of General Practice 2006: 8:600-605.
  7. Harrison W.N. Marshall T. The epidemiology of blood pressure in East Asia Journal of Human Hypertension 2006; 20:97-99.


  1. Mohammed M.A., Booth K., Marshall D., Brolly M., Marshall T., Cheng K.K., Hayes M., Fitzpatrick S. A practical method for monitoring general practice mortality in the UK – findings from a pilot study in a health board of Northern Ireland British Journal of General Practice 2005; 55: 670-676.
  2. Marshall T. Informed consent for mammography screening: modelling the risks and benefits for American women Health Expectations 2005; 8:295-305.
  3. Marshall T. Measuring blood pressure: the importance of understanding variation Brazilian Journal of Hypertension 2005; 12(2):75-82.
  4. Marshall T. How many antihypertensives do patients need to achieve a target blood pressure? Journal of Human Hypertension 2005; 19:317-319.
  5. Marshall T. Evaluating national guidelines for prevention of cardiovascular disease in primary care Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 2005; 11:452-461.
  6. Birmingham Patient Preferences Group Bryan S., Gill P., Greenfield S., Gutridge K., Marshall T. Clinicians’ preferences for treatments to prevent heart disease: a postal survey Heart 2005; 91:377-378.
  7. Birmingham Patient Preferences Group Bryan S., Gill P., Greenfield S., Gutridge K., Marshall T. Factors influencing clinicians’ decisions to prescribe medication to prevent heart disease Journal of Clinical Pharmacy and Therapeutics 2005; 30(1); 77-80.


  1. Harrison W.N., Wall M.K., Marshall T. Analysis of inadequate cervical smears using Shewhart control charts BMC Public Health 2004, 4:25 (29 June 2004)
  2. Marshall T. Blood pressure measurement: the problem and its solution. Journal of Human Hypertension 2004; 18:769-773. (01 Nov 2004)
  3. Mohammed M.A., Raftery J., Leatherbarrow M., Harley M. and Marshall T. Counting in-hospital deaths in England - a comparison of hospital computer systems and mortuary registers Journal of Health Services Research & Policy 2004; 2:100-103.
  4. Marshall T., Mohammed M.A., Rouse A. A randomised controlled trial of league tables and control charts as aids to health service decision-making. International Journal for Quality in Health Care 2004; 16(4):309-15.
  5. Marshall T. When measurements are misleading: modelling the effects of blood pressure misclassification in the English population British Medical Journal 2004; 328:933.


  1. Marshall T. Coronary heart disease prevention: insights from modelling incremental cost-effectiveness British Medical Journal 2003; 327:1264-7.
  2. Adab P., Marshall T., Rouse A., Randhawa B., Sangha H., and Bhangoo N. Randomised controlled trial of the effect of evidence-based information on women’s willingness to participate in cervical cancer screening Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 2003; 57: 589-593.
  3. Marshall T., Adab P. Informed consent for breast screening: what should we tell women? Journal of Medical Screening 2003; 10(1):22-26.
  4. Marshall T., Mohammed M.A. Understanding variation for quality improvement: the treatment of sore throats in primary care. Family Practice 2003:20(1):69-73.


  1. Marshall T., Anantharachagan A., Choudhary K., Chue C., Kaur I. A randomised controlled trial of the effect of anticipation of a blood test on blood pressure. Journal of Human Hypertension 2002; 16:621-625.
  2. Marshall T., Mohammed M.A. Differences in clinical performance. British Journal of Surgery 2002; 8(98):1-3.
  3. Marshall T., Rouse A. Resource implications and health benefits of primary prevention strategies for cardiovascular disease in people aged 30 to 74: mathematical modelling study. British Medical Journal 2002; 325:197-199.
  4. Adab P., Rouse A.M., Mohammed M.A., Marshall T. Performance league tables: the NHS deserves better British Medical Journal 2002; 324:95-98.
  5. Marshall T., Mohammed M.A., Lim H.T. Understanding variation for clinical governance: an illustration using the diagnosis and treatment of sore throat. British Journal of General Practice 2002; 52:277-282.


  1. Rouse A., Marshall T. The extent and implications of sphygmomanometer calibration error in primary care. Journal of Human Hypertension 2001; 15(9):587-592.
  2. Marshall T., Rouse A. Meeting the National Service Framework for coronary heart disease. Which patients have untreated high blood pressure? British Journal of General Practice 2001; 51:571-574.
  3. Marshall T., Simpson S., Stevens A. Health care needs assessment in prisons: a toolkit. Journal of Public Health Medicine 2001; 23(3):198-204.
  4. Marshall T., Simpson S., Stevens A. Use of health services by prison inmates: comparisons with the community. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 2001; 55:364-5.
  5. Marshall T., Anantharachagan A., Chan V.G.K.W., Soo Hoo S., Yeo J.C.L. How many tonsillectomies are evidence-based? Journal of Clinical Excellence May 2001; 3:23-25.
  6. Mohammed M.A., Cheng K.K., Rouse A., Marshall T. Bristol Shipman, and clinical governance: Shewhart's forgotten lessons. Lancet 2001; 357:463-467.

2000 and earlier

  1. Marshall T. Exploring a fiscal food policy: the case of diet and ischaemic heart disease. British Medical Journal 2000; 320:301-5.
  2. Marshall T. Health care in the 21st century: what could be the shape of things to come? Health Care Analysis 1999; 7(1):70-79.
  3. Marshall T. A review of tonsillectomy for recurrent throat infection. British Journal of General Practice 1998; 48:1331-5.
  4. Marshall T. Scientific knowledge in medicine: a new clinical epistemology? Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice 1997; 3:133-8.

Deary I.J., Wilson J.A., Mitchell L., Marshall T. Covert psychiatric disturbance in patients with globus pharyngis. British Journal of Medical Psychology 1989; 62:381-9.

View all publications in research portal


Prevention of heart disease