Dr Malcolm James Price BSc(Hons), MSc, PhD

Dr Malcolm James Price

Institute of Applied Health Research
Lecturer in Biostatistics

Contact details

Institute of Applied Health Research
Public Health Building
University of Birmingham
B15 2TT

Malcolm Price is a Lecturer in Biostatistics at Institute of Applied Health Research.

Malcolm has a keen interest in tackling important applications in evidence synthesis and decision modelling that require development of new methodology.

He has published over 20 research papers in scientific journals in the fields of statistics, epidemiology, health economics and clinical Sciences. He is co-applicant on grant funding from the National Institute of Health Research, the National institute of Clinical Excellence and the Medical Research Council. He was awarded a postdoctoral fellowship by the Economic and Social Research Council.

He has presented his work at a large number of academic conferences to audiences including statisticians, health economists, epidemiologists, clinicians, and policy makers.


Lecturer in Biostatistics.

  • PhD entitled “Estimation of Markov models for decision analysis”. University of Bristol, Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry 2009,
  • MSc in Applied Statistics, (Distinction) Sheffield Hallam University, 2006
  • BSc (Hons) in Maths, Stats and Computing, (First) Liverpool John Moores University, 2000


Malcolm has published in Statistical, health economic, epidemiology and clinical journals.

He collaborates with several external groups including: the Multi-parameter evidence synthesis group and the health protection research unit at University of Bristol, the MRC Biostatics unit at university of Cambridge, the prognostic modelling group at Keel University and the academic unit at Birmingham women’s hospital.

His PhD centred on developing Bayesian evidence synthesis methods to estimate Markov models for decision analysis.

His recent major projects have included a Heath technology assessment report which uses Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis methods to estimate a model for the natural history of chlamydia. 

He is currently working with colleagues in the academic unit of Birmingham women’s hospital on a network meta-analysis comparing prophylaxis treatments for the prevention of post-partum haemorrhage. 


Malcolm teaches on several courses in the Masters of Public Health (MPH) program:

  • Epidemiology, Statistics and Research Methods (ESRM)
  • Practical Epidemiology and Statistics (PEAS)
  • Advanced Statistics
  • Systematic reviews and evidence synthesis

Malcolm is the statistics module lead for ESRM, module lead for Advanced statistics, and deputy module lead for PEAS.

He teaches statistics to medical MBChB and GEC students

Postgraduate supervision

Malcolm co-supervises a PhD project entitled:

“Statistical methods in prognostic factor research: application, development and evaluation”


  • Estimation of dynamic infectious disease models
  • Multivariate meta-analysis and network meta-analysis
  • Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis
  • Estimation of Markov models for Decision analysis

Research groups and Centres

Multi-parameter Evidence Synthesis Research Group


Selected Publications:

Price MJ, Ades AE, Soldan K, Simms I, Welton NJ, Macleod J, Horner PJ. Alternative evidence sources present a consistent picture of the population excess fraction of Pelvic Inflammatory Disease caused by chlamydia trachomatis infection in England.J Infect Dis. Available online. DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiw178.

Price MJ, Ades AE, De Angelis D, Welton NJ, Macleod J, Soldan K, Simms I, Turner K, Horner PH. The natural history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection in women: a multi-parameter evidence synthesis. Health Technol Assess. 2015 March 20(22):1-249. DOI: 10.3310/hta20220.

Jackson D, White IR, Price MJ, Copas J, Riley RD. Borrowing of strength and study weights in multivariate and network meta-analysis. Stat Methods Med Res. Available online DOI: 10.1177/0962280215611702

Dretzke J, Blissett D, Dave C, Mukherjee R, Price M, Bayliss S, Wu X, Jordan R, Jowett S, Turner A, Moore D.The cost-effectiveness of domiciliary non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in patients with end stage COPD. A systematic review and economic evaluation. Health Technology Assessment Report. Health Technol Assess. 2015 Oct;19(81):1-246. DOI: 10.3310/hta19810.

Riley R, Elia E, Hemming K, Malin G, Price MJ. Multivariate meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies with multiple cut-points and/or methods of measurement. Stat Med. 2015 Jul 30;34(17):2481-96. doi: 10.1002/sim.6493.

Dretzke J, Riley R, Lordkipanidzé M, Jowett S, O’Donnell J, Ensor J, Moloney E, Price MJ, Raichand S, Hodgkinson J, Bayliss S, Fitzmaurice D, Moore D. The prognostic and diagnostic utility of tests of platelet function for the detection of “aspirin resistance” in patients with established cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease: A systematic review and
economic evaluation. Health Technol Assess. 2015 May;19(37):1-366. doi: 10.3310/hta19370.

Jordan R, Majothi S, Heneghan N, O’Brien D, Riley R, Sitch A, Price MJ, Bates E, Turner A, Bayliss S, Moore D, Singh S, Adab P, Fitzmaurice D, Jowett S, Jolly K. Supported self-management Moore for patients with moderate to severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD): an evidence synthesis and economic analysis. Health Technol Assess. 2015 May;19(36):1-516. doi: 10.3310/hta19360.

Madan J, Ades AE , Price MJ, Maitland K, Jemutai J, Revill P, Welton NJ. Strategies for Efficient Computation of the Expected Value of Partial Perfect Information. Medical Decision Making 2014, volume 34, issue 03, 327-342. DOI: 10.1177/0272989X13514774).

Price MJ, Ades AE, De Angelis D, Welton NJ, Macleod J, Turner K, Horner PH. Incidence of Chlamydia trachomatis infection in women in England: two methods of estimation. Epidemiol Infect 2013, volume 142, issue 03, pp. 562-576.

Price MJ, Ades AE, Welton NJ, Macleod J, Soldan K, De Angelis D, Simms I, Horner PH. Risk of Pelvic Inflammatory Disease following Chlamydia Trachomatis infection: Analysis of prospective studies with a multistate model. Am J Epidemiol 2013; 178(3): 484-492. DOI: 10.1093/aje/kws583.

Price MJ, Ades AE, De Angelis D, Welton NJ, Macleod J, Soldan K, Simms I, Turner K, Horner PH. Mixtures of exponentials models to explain heterogeneity in studies of duration of Chlamydia trachomatis infection. Stat Med 2013; 32(9): 1547-1560. DOI: 10.1002/sim.5603.

Price MJ, Ades AE, Welton NJ, Macleod J, Turner K, Simms I, Horner PH. How much Tubal Factor Infertility is caused by Chlamydia? Estimation based on serological evidence corrected for sensitivity and specificity. Sex Transm Dis 2012; 39(8):608-13. DOI: 10.1097/OLQ.0b013e3182572475 

Price MJ, Welton NJ, Briggs AH, Ades AE. Model averaging in the presence of structural uncertainty about treatment effects: influence on treatment decision and expected value of information. Value in Health 2011;14(2):205-18. DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2010.08.001

Price MJ, Welton NJ, Ades AE. Parameterisation of Treatment effects for meta-analysis in Multi-state Markov models. Stat Med 2011;30:140-151. DOI: 10.1002/sim.4059

View all publications in research portal