Professor Richard Riley BSc, MSc, PhD

Professor Richard Riley

Institute of Applied Health Research
Professor of Biostatistics

Contact details

Public Health Building
Institute of Applied Health Research
University of Birmingham

Richard Riley is a Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Birmingham, leading a team of statisticians undertaking applied and methodology research for healthcare, especially in regard to prognosis, prediction models, and evidence synthesis.

Richard is Deputy Chief Statistics Editor for The BMJ and Chief Statistics Editor for BMJ Medicine, a co-convenor of the Cochrane Prognosis Methods Group, Deputy Chair of the MRC-NIHR Better Methods Better Research panel, and a long-serving panel member of the NIHR Doctoral Fellowships scheme. He is the lead statistician on numerous applied and methodological healthcare related grants, from funders including the MRC and NIHR, and has published over 200 research articles and is lead Editor on 2 textbooks.

Richard hosts the websites and

ORCID ID: 0000-0001-8699-0735

Google Scholar Profile


  • PhD “Evidence Synthesis of Prognostic Marker Studies”, University of Leicester, 2006
  • MSc Medical Statistics, University of Leicester, 1999
  • BSc Mathematics with Statistics, University of Nottingham, 1998


Richard is a biostatistician with over twenty-years experience of methodology innovation and application. He is an expert on methods for meta-analysis, risk prediction and prognosis research. In meta-analysis, he specialises in methods for synthesising individual participant data (IPD), and is lead Editor of the book “Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis: A Handbook for Healthcare Research”, published by Wiley in 2021.

In prognosis, Richard co-leads the PROGRESS initiative (PROGnosis RESearch Strategy), that seeks to improve the standards of prognosis research, including the development and validation of risk prediction models. A major focus is his work on sample size calculations for developing and validation prediction models. He is the lead Editor of the book ‘Prognosis Research in Healthcare: Concepts, Methods and Impact’, published by Oxford University Press in 2019.

Richard is also a senior member of the steering committee for TRIPOD, which produce reporting guidelines for prediction model studies, and founder and co-convenor of the Cochrane Prognosis methods group, which produce guidance for undertaking systematic reviews of prognosis studies.

Richard’s YouTube channel is here and examples include:

  • Key Steps and Common Pitfalls in Clinical Prediction Model Research
  • Sample size calculations for clinical prediction model research (aka "goodbye rules of thumb"
  • Power Calculations for Individual Participant Data (IPD) Meta-Analysis Projects
  • Sample size calculations for external validation of a clinical prediction model
  • Stability of Clinical Prediction Models Developed Using Statistical or Machine Learning Approaches