"This may be the most important mid-term US election in American history, determining not only majorities in each house of Congress but also the fate of America amid the division and animosity of the Trump era.”
THE HOUSE
"The current Republican majority is 235-193 with seven seats vacant. Democrats need to take over 25 Republican or vacant seats to take control.
The best forecaster, FiveThirtyEight, gives Democrats an 85% chance of reaching that target. The site projects that Democrats will gain 38 seats for an overall majority of 31 in the new Congress.
"With a projected 7% advantage over the GOP, Democrats are expected to make significant gains in Pennsylvania, picking up four seats with three more as toss-ups. Other leading battlegrounds are California, Minnesota, Florida, and Iowa.”
THE SENATE
"The current Republican majority is 51-49. "Despite the 7% polling lead, Democrats have a far tougher task than with the House, as they are defending 26 of the 35 contested seats --- and the nine Republican seats are all in GOP strongholds. There are nine key races, with five of the seats currently held by Democrats and four by Republicans: Florida (D), Indiana (D), Missouri (D), North Dakota (D), Montana (D), Tennessee (R), Texas (R), Nevada (R), Arizona (R). Democrats will struggle to take Texas or Tennessee on current projections — So they must win the other two GOP seats and hold their five vulnerable seats. However, North Dakota is favoured to go GOP and Missouri is a toss-up. Based on this, the Democrats’ best hope appears to be 50-50, with Vice President Mike Pence the deciding vote, but a small increase in Republican majority is more likely.
"All options are possible because of a likely record turnout. A surge among “Trump’s base” and other Republicans could lead to the GOP holding both chambers, or a surge among Democrats and those differing with Trump could lead to an upset in the Senate. Early voting has soared — GOP cheerleaders says that is good for them, while Democrats note a rise in the 18-to-24 vote (400% in Georgia amid a close Governor’s race, 700% in Tennessee with its Senate contest)."
Watch Professor Scott Lucas discussing some of these points.
Ends
Scott Lucas became Professor of International Politics in 2014, having been on the staff of the University of Birmingham since 1989 and a Professor of American Studies since 1997. Professor Lucas is the founder and editor of EA WorldView, a leading website in daily news and analysis of Iran, Turkey, Syria, and the wider Middle East, as well as US foreign policy.
To interview Scott Lucas please email W.S.LUCAS@bham.ac.uk or call on + 44 (0) 7939 520001.