Forced into exile after the 2020 elections, when she embarrassed President Aleksandr Lukashenka by forcing him to undertake unprecedented levels of electoral manipulation, Tsikhanouskaya is a living embodiment of the importance of resisting the rising tide of authoritarianism. Speaking to a packed audience of Members of Parliament, journalists and the UK’s democracy community, she gave a powerful speech about her people’s struggle for freedom that elicited a long and moving standing ovation.
The Annual Lecture on the State of Democracy in the World is a new initiative of the Westminster Foundation for Democracy (WFD) and the University of Birmingham’s new Centre for Elections, Democracy, Accountability and Representation (CEDAR). Through their collaboration and shared research agenda, CEDAR and WFD are at the forefront of efforts to identify new ways to strengthen democratic resilience and reverse a 17 year trend of rising authoritarianism. The Lecture, which was supported by the University’s College of Social Sciences and the Birmingham International Engagement Fund, has been created in order to shine a light on the human stories that underpin the promise of democracy, such as Tsikhanouskaya’s, and the struggle to defend it around the world. Strengthening democracy is a global challenge, and we can learn from the experiences of those working to uphold human rights and strengthen democracy in their countries and communities.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s remarks demonstrated the importance and urgency of defending democracy around the world in three different ways: the human impact, the spread of authoritarianism across borders, and how this spread undermines the prospects for peace and prosperity around the world. First, her personal account of developments in Belarus revealed the terrible impact of authoritarianism on ordinary citizens, and the way in which it breeds violence, fear, and economic hardship. Knowing that it cannot hope to retain power in free and fair elections, Lukashenka, has become increasingly repressive. Today, there are at least 1,500 political prisoners in Belarus, and conditions are so harsh that three political prisoners have died since 2020. Tsikhanouskaya herself only emerged as the main leader of the opposition after her husband, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, had been detained in order to stop him from contesting the 2020 general elections.
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Hello good morning and welcome to you all and a huge thank you to coming to
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this inaugural event. I'm Richard Graham. I have the huge honor of chairing the
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Westminster Foundation for Democracy and I want to give a big welcome on behalf of parliament as well as WFD to today's
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Event. This is a joint event WFD and CEDAR and for those who are good
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acronyms you will all know that CEDAR is the Centre for Elections, Democracy, Accountability and Representation. Pause
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for breath at the University of Birmingham, wonderfully represented by Professor
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Nick Cheesman about whom more in a moment or two. But this is our inaugural
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lecture on the State of Democracy in the World 2023. This was an idea that I had some
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years ago and has come to fruition thanks to the hard work of many people and particularly my colleagues
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Anthony Smith and others in the WFD and what a time to launch this
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event with invasions and hideous loss of life in both Europe and the Middle East.
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I always thought that air raids and air raid shelters were part of the
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experience of my parents generation in this continent not
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ours and that came to an end that belief two weeks ago in
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Kyiv. Today in fact just one out of five people in the world live in countries
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rated as free and the levels of democracy around the world have been
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declining now for 17 years. So the backdrop to this inaugural
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lecture is sombre. We all have much to do if our
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Legacy to today today's young is to be more than well we did our best but
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please do better. So let me say a few words first about today's event, our partnership with
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the University of Birmingham and then introduce our remarkable special guest and our two other distinguished
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Speakers. The partnership with the University of Birmingham uh has been remarkable during
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its first seven years and that is now linked to CEDAR. I believe this has enabled their
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independent researchers to have access to active and pressing work to address
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the effectiveness of political systems around the world and it's given the
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WFD, the FCD and others learning and knowledge that we all need to improve
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the way that we work. So I'm really pleased that we're working in Partnership to establish this lecture
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series which could not be more relevant the decline of democracy threatens all
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our security. We know that democracy helps protect individual rights reduces
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the risk of conflict and increases the likelihood of sustainable economic
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growth and effective social policies, so we wanted to start this lecture series
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to highlight the human stories that underpin the promise of democracy and
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the struggle to defend it. We want to learn from the experiences
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of other countries and by God going to Ukraine is
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a learning experience. As we tackle this common challenge we want to bring focus to
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democracy defenders and those that put themselves at risk as our guest speaker
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has done for the sake of democracy often over overshadowed by
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autocrats and dictators and we want to hear their ideas about the challenges and
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opportunities ahead and all of this we believe should help identify the way
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forward to strengthen democracy globally. So
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today I am really honoured to introduce
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Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya as the inaugural WFD democracy Lecture.
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Sviatlana you need very little introduction as the leader of the
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Belarussian Democratic opposition movement and head of the United transitional
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cabinet of Belarus. For everybody in this room I
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suspect you were the real winner of the presidential election as many of you will know
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Sviatlana stood against Lukashenko in the 2020 presidential elections after her husband Sergey was barred from running, arrested
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and imprisoned and he remains in prison. Lukashenko has declared the winner
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of these flaw and fraudulent elections and Sviatlana was forced into exile in
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Lithuania that inspired unprecedented peaceful pro-democracy protests in
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Belarus and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine s Sviatlana announced the
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anti-war movement to prevent the participation Belarus in that invasion
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of Ukraine. She's visited 28 countries gathering support and advocating for the
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release of more than 1500 political prisoners and a peaceful transition through free and fair elections
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which was your main motivation for standing at that
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Time, so Sviatlana has direct experience of a struggle to defend democracy and has
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paid a huge personal price in her own family and we're honoured to be hearing from her
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Today. After her lecture she will then be joined in conversation here by Dame Melinda
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Simmons well known to everybody as our former Ambassador in Ukraine whose blogs
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and videos and social media brought it all alive to millions of
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people conflict and stabilization themes have run through I think Melinda’s entire
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career uh whether working in the FCD or for the National Security Secretariat at
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the cabinet office, setting up the cross government fund focused on prevention
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and resolution violent conflict and both of them will also be
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joined by Professor Nick cheesman, the Professor of Democracy at the University of Birmingham our key partner for both
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this lecture and work in General on democracy and Nick, I know that you will moderate the
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conversation um but I hope that it will be an exciting one rather than a moderate
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one and take all the audience questions and Nick who was formerly the director
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of the African studies Centre at Oxford University and the author of a great book which I read some years ago when I
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joined WFD called how to rig elections um and the object of the
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exercise was how not to rig them rather than encouraging us on how to rig them
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but he's the founding director of the CEDAR Center. So ladies and gentlemen there is
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I hope a really good um discussion and inspiration to be
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had this morning and the inspiration Starts Now by welcoming to the stage
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Sviatlana
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Tsikhanouskaya
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Dear Richard, your Excellency Dame Melinda Simmons dear guests their friends of
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Belarus I'm deeply honoured to be the first one to deliver this annual lecture
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on the state of the democracy in the world. Thanks to WFD and CEDAR for
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this opportunity. You know, I think it's a common feeling that democracy around the
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world is in danger, it is sad to realize that only 20% of the world's population live in a
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country rated as free by Freedom House. Lately democracy is not just in a
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decline it's under attack and one of the brutal attacks on
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democracy has been carried out in Belarus by Lukashenka regime for three
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years now supported by Russia. This attack led to Russia's military presence
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in Belarus, it made possible the Russian full scale invasion of Ukraine in which
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Lukashenko is Putin's accomplice you know I'm convinced that
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the West could have prevented this bloody war by reting Alia and hasha to
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what Lukashenko was doing to Belarusians in 2020 if our peaceful Revolution
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succeeded then the war would probably have never started. You know as I often say, tyranny
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is like a cancer if not dealt with properly it spills over entire region.
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This is exactly what happened in the case of Belarus, the members of the so-called
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dictators club learn from each other and support each other Lukashenko’s media as well
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as Putin's were cheering after the Hamas terrorist attack on Israel. Propaganda
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wrote that this attack was the victory of Minsk and
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Moscow tyrants are mongering hate against the Democratic World among the
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population of their countries. You know after 9/11 people in the United States
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were asking why do they hate us? They do because the existence of
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Western democracies proves to the people of the globe that another world is
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Possible. Democracy is more attractive and more effective than tyranny, it's
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more successful economically to live in democracy means to live in security,
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peace and prosperity. This this is why people from all over the world are attracted by the
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way of life or in Western Democratic societies they also want their share in
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prosperity and peace they don't look up to authoritarian countries but
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unfortunately, not all of them succeeded in building democracy at home. You know to live in democracy means
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to live in the 21st century, to live in a dictatorship means to live in the times
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of the Cold War or even in some cases in the Middle Ages. Belarusians chose democracy in 2020
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and they have never changed their mind since then, they want to live in an
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independent free modern country but not in a totalitarian
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system but they have had time staying true to their choice in a country
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controlled by a violent Kremlin backed regime.
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What does life in dictatorship mean? You know it was the British writer
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George Orwell who described it best, it is a world turned upside down a
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world where war is peace, slavery is freedom, ignorance is strength, lies are
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the truth and so on. Dictatorship is a world of faith,
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lies appeal to the human mind because they are more than plain truth, the
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bigger the lie, the more willing are people to believe it. Tyranny means not only hatred and
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fake news, tyrants also stage a fake democracy, they deprive people of their
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voices and turn them into an obedient and hardworking
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Mess. Fake democracy starts with fake elections, elections without a real
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Choice are degraded to an empty ritual such were held in the Soviet Union and
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in Belarus after Lukashenko came to power in
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1994 manipulation and ready made results kidnapping and murders of political
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Opponents, mass detentions and beating. All this happened in Lukashenka’s
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Belarus even before 2020 almost every presidential candidate other than
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Lukashenko ended up in jail. In 2020 the campaign started with
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the detention of presidential hopefuls Viktar Babaryka and Sergei Tikhanovsky my husband. False allegations were brought
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against them. I replaced my husband because I didn't want to fail him and I didn't
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want to fail the Belarus people who remained without alternative candidates. As
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housewife with two children challenged the tyrant. The authorities registered me.
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Lukashenko couldn't believe that a woman without any experience could beat him.
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Our constitution is not for women the dictator said but he was wrong me and my
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team we managed to steal the show and Belarus voted for
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us of course Lukashenko declared his victory again but no one believed. This
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time he lost his legitimacy in the eyes of Belarusian people and hundreds of
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thousands went to the streets to defend their choice. Even the terror and mass
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repressions didn't kill people's desire for
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Freedom. Dictatorship means fake justice. Belarus courts became just another
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tool for political revenge. Everyone can be sentenced to several years in prison as an extremist
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for what? Just for sharing or liking a post criticizing Lukashenko or Russia in
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social media. You are going to be arrested, beaten and then humiliated on
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the so-called confession video. On those we can see beaten and tortured people
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blaming themselves for crimes they never committed, just like in Stalin's times or
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in Orell's books. Alexi an IT specialist was
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arrested for a comment on the internet. They came for him to his office,
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handcuffed him and started beating him in the police car. They tore his ear and
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made him drink from a toilet bowl at the police station. After serving one year
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and a half in Lukashenka’s prison he managed to leave the country and it is
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just one typical example of political persecution in Belarus since 2020. More
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than 50,000 people have passed through experience of detention. You know we usually think that
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such things happen on regular basis only in Iran or North Korea, no they happen
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every single day in Europe in Belarus. Situation with Human Rights
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right in Belarus has become a catastrophe, such arrests as I have described continue every day. In August for example,
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20 people have been detained daily and there are at least 1,500
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political prisoners. The real number is much higher up to 5,000 at
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Least. People are kept in hellish conditions, many of them solitary confinement in incognito.
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I haven't heard anything about my husband for seven months already. I
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don't know even if he's alive. Several months ago they sent me text message
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saying that he was dead. At least three political prisoners
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died in prison we told Ashurak, Nikolai Kovic and Ales Pushkin. Ashurak was beaten to death
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Kovic and Pushkin were denied medical assistance. Ales Pushkin one of the best
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painters in Belarus will never finish his last painting that he was working on for years, it is painting about the
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history of Belarus Fight For Freedom. As I speak the lives of hundreds
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of political prisoners are in danger for the same reason including those of my friends like Maria Kolesnikova, Viktar Babaryka
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and others you know having texted me fake news about my husband's death.
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Lukashenka’s henchmen with were trying to break me but you know what they
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didn't and they will not break me just like they can't break the will of our
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political prisoners. take Palina Panasyuk, the
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mother of two children she renounced Belarus citizenship in protest against
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Torture. Last year she spent more than 200 days in isolation in the punishment cell,
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she was beaten and her ribs were broken, she's denied treatment and medication
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for her condition. They are literally killing her you know ,with a
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high of 5.5 ft Palina now weighs only 100 lb. Now they sentenced Palina to a new
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prison term for the third time in a row but neither torture, imprisonment nor attempt
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to put you in a mental ward have broken him. Dictatorship means fake humanism.
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Since 2020 Lukashenko has been bringing to Belarusian immigrants from the Middle
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East and Africa. He's using them to orchestrate a hybrid attack on the
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European Union. In this way he blackmails our neighbour countries Poland, Lithuania,
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and Latvia and it is an orchestrated human tragedy from which the dictator hopes to
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Benefit. Do you think he cares for refugees life? Of course not, all he cares is his
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personal power. It is a fake humanism when he
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illegally brings Ukrainian orphans from occupied territories to Belarus. There
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his propagandist brainwashed them and teach them to hate Ukraine their
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Motherland. Lukashenko acts as if he had no part in the war as if he didn't help
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to destroy this children's homes with Russia missiles launched from Belarus
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last year as if he didn't know that to displace citizens from of another state
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in this case Ukraine is a war crime dictatorship means fake
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Patriotism. The dictator brings Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus saying that
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these are for our protection. Protection from whom? It is the tool to blackmail
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the neighbours and to fix Russian control over Belarus for many, many
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years as a fake patriot Lukashenko needs only those Belarusians whom he can
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Control. Those who left the country following repressions are rendered stateless by
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his recent decision not to renew National passports for bans in
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Exile. He just wants to get rid of them and take revenge on everyone who dared
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to speak up against him. Finally dictatorship means
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propaganda and fake news in Belarus it is all anti-Western
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and anti-Ukrainian brainwashing and hate mongering. It endlessly goes on in the
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media but not only. It starts in schools already Wagner mercenaries, murderers
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that look brought to Belarus after school are invited to teach
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Belarusian pupils. In some schools Belarusian classical writers are banned
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because they wrote and fought against Russian imperialism. However even such a massive
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propaganda has its limits. The regime didn't manage to convince Belarusians to
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join Russia in the war against Ukraine it gives me hope that after so so many
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years of dictatorship people have developed resilience to lies and learned
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to look for the truth. So what does it mean to live in a
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Dictatorship? Iit means fear you are afraid to visit
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anti-government pages on the Internet or to read the media proclaimed
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extremists even when writing to a family you use encrypted messengers to avoid
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Avid potential encounters with the KB. You are afraid to keep your old
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photos in your phone they can be used as evidence that you were taking part in
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protests 3 years ago, you're afraid to speak Belarusian on the streets because
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it makes you a potential enemy of the regime. You know that if they come for
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You, you will not be out of prison for months and probably years because there is no independent Justice there is just
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no way to prove that you are innocent, presumption of guilt works instead of
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presumption of innocence. Given all this harness and
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hardships I sometimes hear that Belarus is a lost case but it's not. Let me assure you
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Belarus can be a success story. Why am I positive about it
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because I know the Belarusian people. A pensioner from Minsk called me some time
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Ago, she told me that she and her female friends gather regularly to discuss
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politics and support each other. Aren't you afraid I asked her? We simply tired
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to be afraid she told me there are too many of us, they just can't arrest
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everyone and people like this, we woman give me strength to go on on my political
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Activities. Also thinking about my husband doesn't leave me another choice than to continue my
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Fight. You know uh my son has been hearing impaired since he was born
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and I spent years to rehabilitate him. I didn't know if it would work out but I
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just was doing what I had to do and fighting for democracy is just the same.
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It can be long and challenging with no outcome guaranteed but we have to
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hold on to the dream and to be ready to give it all to
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It. Belarussians are tired of living dictatorship for almost 30 years though
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you can't see um any beautiful Ries like those three years ago the resistance
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continued and went underground it is not sleeping, it is preparing for the new
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wind of opportunity when it comes. Only last year there were at least
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375 acts of peaceful protest in Belarus. Recently Belarusian Railway
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partisans have blown up the railway track section used by Russian
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Military. As I speak thousands of Belarusian volunteers are fighting for Ukraine within the Ukrainian Armed
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Forces, so were thousands of Belarusians fighting in the Anders army during World War
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II, fighting for Britain, they were fighting for Belarus today defending Ukraine.
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Belarusians also fight for freedom of Belarus, the destinies of our countries
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are intertwined because Putin doesn't want to see no Ukraine no Belarus as independent
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Countries, he wants our countries to be colonies without democratic institutions
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and without national identity and without Belarus
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and Ukraine Putin's attempts to restore the empire are doomed to
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Fail. Dear friends I have no doubt that Ukraine will win this war and Belarus
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will be free too, however we can't win this fight alone we need strong allies
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and friends who are ready for bold steps and decisions and I do believe that such
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people are today in this room and I don't ask you to fight instead of us,
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changes in Belarus are the task of Belarusians themselves but I ask you to
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stand with Belarus in such a critical moment of history when the very existence of our country is under
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threat I wish Belarus to be among the priorities of the British Parliament
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current and future UK government. I ask you to demand from your government
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the strong and decisive steps in confronting Putin's and Lukashenka’s tyrannies Wars of condemnation are not
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enough demand immediate withdrawal of Russian troops and weapons from
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Belarus, sanction Russia for undermining Belarusian sovereignty. Current
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sanctions don't work in full because of loopholes and the UK could set an
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example of how to fight the convention of sanctions joining the International
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coalition in support of independent and sovereign Balarus. Don't allow Belarus to
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become a consolation prize for Putin. While increasing sanctions on the
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Regime, increase assistance to democratic forces, civil society, independent media,
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human rights defenders, we have resources to sustain but we need resources to
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Win. Help us to restore justice, demand the tribunal not only for Putin but also
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for Lukashenko. Arrest warrant on his uh arrest must be issued. He has a long
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record of crimes against humanity, orchestrated migration crisis and
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finally deportation of Ukrainian children. Parliamentarians can join the
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All party parliamentary group for Belarus. So let me here today pay a
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tribute to our big friends Tony, Sir Tony Lloyd the groups chairman and thank him
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for his steady support of Belarus. Also become God Parents for
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political prisoners like Boris Johnson adopted my husband
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Yesterday. You know many of political prisoners have already served their terms now they need relocation and
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rehabilitation and I rely also on your support in this
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Matter. There are exiled Belarusians in Britain, the regime recently deprived them of
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passports and we plan to start issuing our own alternative Belarus passport as
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Baltic states were doing during the Soviet occupation that will allow Belarusian to
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travel and not to lose their connection with their motherland and I hope that the UK will be among the first to endorse
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for this initiative and finally help Ukraine to
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win this war. Victory of Ukraine will be ultimate defeat of Putin and Lukashenko/
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Democratic Belarus will be a huge blow to Russian
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Imperialism. Dear friends, fighting for free Belarus is a part of the global
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struggle for democracy, the dictators unite so
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for democracies I firmly believe that the challenges that we face today will make
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us only stronger we live in a pivotal moment of the
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History. If you want to picture the future imagine a boot stamping on a
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human face forever or real road this is exactly the prophecy that we must
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prevent from coming true. Democracy itself is not a boot on
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anyone's face, we don't want to impose our way of life upon other,s we open the
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door for the people of the world welcoming them to live in the 21st
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Century. This is exactly what Belarus want and no no dictatorship, no occupation no
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terror can hold us back from fulfilling our dream to become a truly Democratic
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European country and I hope very much that with the help of one of the oldest
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European Democracies, the United Kingdom, we will prevail. Thank
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You.
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Wow, thank you ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for a wonderful speech, I see tears I see,joy I see resistance in the audience
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that was that was truly powerful and a remarkable first democracy lecture. I
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don't think anybody could possibly have done a better job and one of the things that I thought you did so terrifically
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was to actually connect what is happening to democracy in Belarus, what is happening to democracy in Russia, to what
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is happening in Ukraine and to what is happening in other countries around Europe and I think one of the things
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that CEDAR and WFD have been really trying to communicate over the last few years is exactly that that democracy is,
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not just about rights, it's also about security, it's about peace, it's about conflict, it's about economic growth and
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that broad range of issues means that we have to understand it is key to our own national security in the UK as well as
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something for the people of Belarus. Thank you so much for that inspiration I'm delighted now that we are joined um
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by Dame Melinda Simmons who as was already uh very well introduced but uh was until very
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recently of course our ambassador to Ukraine but before that has a really
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remarkable and truly impressive career uh starting off with International NGOS
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working on conflict resolution issues and then work, working in a number of different positions across DFiD and FCO
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uh including things uh like being you know the head of the diff southern Africa office in Petoria and the head
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and then director of the national uh security Secretariat so I think it's a fantastic conversation we have now
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because as well as having that Ukraine experience you actually have thematic experience of many of the key issues
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that came up in the speech. One of the things I thought we might start with is something you touched on in the speech
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and you've talked about in the past which is the role of leadership and in particular the role of women's
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leadership during moments of conflict. You said in the speech that Lukashenko had almost humiliated you said that he
33:38
would allow you to stand because you were a woman and a wouldn't woman couldn't win um and yet actually you
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prove to be the candidate who actually defeated him were it not for his mass election rigging and I know you've also
33:52
been very interested in the role of women and the role of women in in peace building and in particular particular in
33:57
places like Ukraine and I think one I wanted to start by asking you is you know how do you preserve that role for
34:05
women because it is so difficult in spaces that are so violent and some of the things that you've faced are not just
34:11
the physical threats but the intimidation of your children, threats to take your children away from you and put
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them in an orphanage, you know very gendered forms of violence and yet managing to stand up against that so I
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thought maybe we could start by saying something about the role of women's leadership in particular in both
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Belarus and places like Ukraine you know such uh patriarchal
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systems as uh in in Belarus they always underestimated women and they uh
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actually Lukashenka’s uh brutal regime lost ties with uh Belarus Society with Belarus
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people and he underestimated actually all Belarusians and he lost this connection and
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couldn't guess that uh people of Belarus are much uh far away from him in their
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development so our people want to uh go to the Future and Lukashenko has always
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been dragging us back into Soviet Union, uh Soviet Union time and uh particular
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is for women you know women are usually much stronger than uh people got used to
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think about uh them especially in they said in patriarchal systems and uh there
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is Inner Strength inside women and when any woman put in front of difficulties
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obstacles where she has to show its strength she always do this and U uh I
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see that you know in 2020 and after women took a leading role uh in our
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uprising women way in front of this uh like men in Black masks you know like
35:59
uh defin you know waving our flags and they uh became leaders in different
36:05
initiatives and organizations and they see that women are more effective in um
36:11
marathons on long distance you know they are because maybe they got used to
36:18
do you know many jobs simultaneously they're bringing up children, they're working and
36:24
you know they uh very of when uh at least you know in in post Soviet Union Congress men are not helping uh with the
36:32
household you know so uh me women get used to difficulties now they're showing
36:37
their strength and uh we see how our women in prisons you know they are also
36:43
you know continuing their fight, being even behind the bars you know and of course they are humiliated constantly
36:50
they are kept in inhuman conditions but uh you know they preserve their dignity in front of this administration
36:56
of prison so I'm really inspired by this and women they gave me give me strength
37:03
constantly and so I think that there will be no even discussion about the
37:08
role of women, women in future of Belarus thank you so much I think one of
37:14
the things that's really interesting to me is you know sometimes the power of that more inclusive approach is is not
37:21
recognized by people the research that WFD and CEDAR have done for example shows
37:26
that increasing the representation of women in Parliament actually has concrete effects like increasing
37:32
spending on things like healthcare. There's a vast amount of research now that shows an increasing women more
37:37
centrally in peace building operations actually leads to higher chances of success in terms of you know moving away
37:43
from peace but that can be particularly difficult in the moment of conflict in countries like Ukraine and Belarus. What
37:50
do you think we might be able to do, you know, moving forwards to actually you know pay respect to that and actually
37:55
put that at the heart of our policy? Thank you, well uh Ukraine is also patriarchal um historically just as
38:02
Belarus in fact, the region generally uh has quite patriarchal society and if I'm honest one of the first things that we
38:09
might all do is look at ourselves in the mirror because we have responded accordingly when I uh arrived in in
38:14
Ukraine in 2019 there were 78 diplomatic missions and the number of women who
38:20
headed them 13 and by the time I left 11 we don't have enough of a pipeline of
38:26
women um from the International Community who are interested in working in security in security policy and in a
38:33
part of the world that traditionally we just haven't given enough attention to and which is now forced upon us um by
38:38
the invasion of Ukraine so the first thing we could do is look at our own systems when we're thinking about what we are growing in terms of working
38:44
alongside uh countries like Belarus or countries like Ukraine and think about who we are bringing in because there is
38:50
nothing that inspires women um to get involved like seeing other women getting involved and that means we must all
38:55
create that suround sound mutually reinforcing effect and and that means we need to be investing in people um with
39:02
incentives to to bring them to to this kind of work so I think um that's the first thing the second thing I would say
39:08
particularly about Ukraine is that uh one of the most successful areas of reform that Ukraine was undertaking that
39:14
benefited women most directly was decentralization reform the much not talked about area of Reform that enabled
39:22
the participation of women properly at scale for the first time in community politics and in local and Regional
39:28
politics in a way that still was only kind of in its you know infancy at parliamentary level so uh the other way
39:35
to think about this is we look at grand um politics in the National level and
39:40
frankly not much is more important when it comes to a crisis of the type that Belarus continues to experience and that
39:47
of course is existential for Ukraine but when I look at the leaders that are emerging as a result of the Russian
39:53
invasion of Ukraine or when anyone does you look in several areas now you don't just look in national politics and you
39:58
can see a number uh of new and not just young but new people who have found
40:03
their way um to participate as a result of that decentralization that empowering
40:09
uh of the local communities so the other I think part of the conversation is looking at this at several levels and
40:15
then ensuring that that support is diversified for those levels to enable um more women to come in. Great, thanks I
40:22
was say we're going to come to the audience in a moment so please do start to get your question ready but maybe one
40:27
more question for me. Picking up on on the speech and maybe bringing in some of that uh point that you were just making
40:33
about the different levels you know one of the things as I said I think you brought out really nicely is the
40:38
interconnection between different countries and what I kind of call authoritarianism across borders right
40:44
the impact of authoritarianism in Russia is not contained to Russia because you can arrest protests against the war
40:51
because you can use disinformation that impact of authoritarianism in Russia and the lack of accountability for Putin
40:57
there generates a regime that has consequences around the world in the part of the world that I know best we're
41:03
talking about you know coups that have people in the streets waving Russian flags as they celebrate them you gave a
41:10
very powerful example of the way in which Russia and Russia's support for Lukashenko has impacted on Belarus and
41:17
therefore also threw that to Ukraine. But do you think that we in the West, the
41:22
democracies that you were appealing to at the end see this properly as the
41:27
consequences of authoritarianism? Because my sense is that actually we tend to sometimes view
41:33
these things as isolated security challenges rather than as being the inevitable consequence of a more
41:39
authoritarian world. You're absolutely right you know, uh I see that in many countries uh
41:46
crisis’s in many countries are not uh seem to be connected at all you know,
41:52
moreover uh when the war in Ukraine has started not all the people or even
41:58
politicians knew that Belarus has a common border with Ukraine for them like the
42:03
picture of the world looked like like Belarus somewhere in Australia uh Ukraine is somewhere here and they didn't know
42:10
how to connect events in Belarus and events in in in Ukraine and it was like
42:15
Awful. Okay, ordinary people but politicians you know it's it's like your your job but nevertheless we are trying
42:22
to explain that uh what starts in one country it can spell over you know the
42:29
entire region and even further you know. Dictators regimes actually they are
42:35
testing the red lines, they testing borders how far they can go until they
42:41
will get like proper reaction from democratic countries you know,
42:47
they it started in Belarus, they started to uh kidnap uh people and detain people,
42:55
torture people okay in couple of months there was reaction in the view of small sanctions
43:01
okay they hijacked airplane like okay uh some more sanctions but you know no no
43:08
Accountability, no justice, no rule of Justice, nothing then MRA crisis then uh
43:14
War started so they like see how far they can go and you know UND
43:20
decisiveness of reaction not in strong steps enough they untie hands of the
43:26
status you know they uh percept it as weakness of democracy and they it's
43:32
allow them you know to help those countries you know who uh start invasion in different region region like in
43:39
Israel for example, dictators very fast learn from each other they are uniting
43:44
against democratic countries but as they often say democracy has teeth it's very
43:50
important to show this state because you have instruments you have tools, but what
43:55
we let of maybe bravery and uh
44:01
understanding uh that dictators will not hesitate you know to test new borders,
44:07
new red lines and without strong reaction they will always like challenge and our democracy thank you very much.
44:14
And that's a point that really chimes with a a recent report WFD brought out which I think most of you have at the executive summary of on your chairs which
44:21
is about how not to engage with authoritarian states and one of the things things that report calls for is a
44:28
more strategic aggressive in a sense response from democracies to the
44:34
challenges that you you've identified do you think um we have we been a little bit slow to identify some of the risks
44:42
of this authoritarian spillover have we not strategized as well as the authoritarian regimes it strikes me that
44:49
you know in in West Africa for example we had three new military Hunters emerge very quickly and almost within months
44:56
they'd signed a Mutual Security pack to defend each other against any intervention to try and restore democracy and I think there is a fear
45:03
that those authoritarians are working quicker more decisively more effectively
45:08
than perhaps the democratic response. Do you share that or do you see a more positive kind of picture and are the
45:15
kind of suggestions you might have for how the international Democratic Community could be more effective? Moving
45:20
forwards well um I can't speak for for the issue globally but I do think that
45:26
there's a a point that might balance it a bit which is that while we might have
45:32
been slow to consider that in the case of not not just Ukraine of course but the region and other former Soviet Union
45:38
countries that Putin I think quite clearly has his eye on um that we may have been slow to understand that he
45:44
wasn't in the market for a you know a negotiated way out of invading Ukraine once he decided he was
45:50
going to do this and not just invade Ukraine but erase Ukraine and I continue to believe that that's the objective the
45:56
Russia has for Ukraine, to erase it that it's not just about territory, it's about people and about culture and about
46:02
language and about history all of this has to be gone um that it's about subjugation not just about control um
46:08
and uh and we may have been slow to understand that because I think it is quite hard to understand for you know a
46:13
culture in which we talk about trying to find ways to compromise and live together and in this there is no compromise and sadly there is no living
46:20
Together, there is only strength but I believe that we have shown that strength and actually Ukrainians for a long time
46:26
before the invasion was saying there is only one thing that Putin understands and that's strength and one of those
46:31
ways that it's interpreted as of course by military strength but that's not the only one political strength too and that
46:37
unity that uh countries were able to bring together that has continued to sustain and I absolutely accept there is
46:44
a political debate about whether it's fracturing a bit and whether it will weather the winter and whether indeed
46:49
it's going to. We the um the calls on its time that the massacre in Israel and
46:54
what may now happen in as it unfolds, what what may happen as a result of that
47:00
but still that unity is not something that Putin had reckoned with, he hadn't calculated for that either so just as we
47:05
were making our assumptions about what Putin may may have as kind of boundaries Putin definitely had his preconceptions
47:11
about what boundaries were for democratic countries and I believe that that unity um blasted that through and
47:18
it's absolutely the case that uh in terms of sort of how much pain each side can take you can see a kind of waiting
47:24
game going on. But I think the Big Challenge if you like, the huge opportunity for democracy is to ensure
47:30
that unity endures because there is nothing that dictators hate worse and
47:35
that the trade that the way in which they have traded is on that assumption of weakness that this kind of spirit of
47:40
compromise and negotiation Etc that they have understood or I think actually misunderstood about democratic countries
47:47
and so actually I think this balances itself out a bit wonderful. Thank you, well thanks also for giving us a more
47:52
positive uh takeaway there which of course is important in terms of thinking about going forward. Before we come to
47:57
the audience I thought maybe it would be nice to give you a moment so just to expand a little bit on what your ask is
48:04
from the United Kingdom. You highlighted it at the end of your speech but I thought maybe you would want to spend a
48:10
little bit longer on the kind of things that you think for example a country like the United Kingdom could do to
48:16
support Belarus. You mentioned closing the sanction loopholes but are there other kinds of actions that you would like to
48:22
See, not just the UK but other countries like the United States and so on actually you know to participate in over
48:28
the next two years that would strengthen your position you know uh when I'm asked in
48:35
the different places. tell us Sviatlana what else we can do you know to help you? I
48:41
always say do what you're already doing but do it properly because half measures
48:48
only harm when I talk about sanctions and not just words sanctions cannot work
48:53
effectively when there is such huge loop, loopholes and the trade with with banned
48:58
regime and Russia increased since the beginning of the war or since 2020 so it means that they
49:06
using you know third countries or each other and continue their trade and it's only in the arms of such powerful
49:13
countries as UK you know and other European Union to stop this. Create a special, I don't know, mechanism of
49:21
sanction enforcement, for example in the USA there is a second, there are secondary sanctions even you know when
49:28
you declare if you state that uh any organizations who will help dictators to
49:35
circumvent sanctions will be punished, it might work already but we don't we don't
49:40
hear this no it like like uh everybody close their eyes okay we impose
49:46
sanctions but how do they work nobody cares because it's on the national jurisdiction you know to uh to follow
49:52
the fulfillment of sanctions and there is always lack of capacity, lock of people and you know um regimes are
49:59
blossoming you know everything is fine you know uh the regime opens doors
50:06
Belarusian daughter Enterprises in Russia and they continue to sell Belarusian Goods who under sanctions but now they are as if they these are
50:14
already Russian products and everybody knows about this but there is no political will to change this so finish
50:22
this track you know it will be already fantastic job about assistance again to ban democratic
50:29
forces to media to uh civil society, you know. It's very difficult to fight uh
50:35
when you people are suffering in jails when you always looking for some assistance you can't work properly
50:42
because propaganda uh for example um regime gets billions of Euros for
50:48
propaganda in Belarus and we uh media in exile have to counter this propaganda
50:54
and to reach every person in Belarus how to do this. Not having enough enough uh
50:59
uh resources for this uh but sometimes see that politicians think uh with
51:06
their eyes only like we don't see Ries in in Belarus maybe everything is okay
51:12
already with your country and we are giving them evidences that people are being detained that people are somehow
51:18
even in this tyranny they're trying you know to to oppose to this regime underground facing years and years and
51:25
prison but we are trying help us help us to to to to win this fight
51:31
Accountability, three years, three years we are collecting evidences of Lukashenka’s crimes, uh it's I already
51:38
listed this crimes and till now there is no political will to uh launch
51:44
special investigation on Lukashenka’s crimes there are many excuses you know we are not part of from statues you know
51:51
all these things but look, when we have to restore justice there, impossible to do inside the country help us to show
51:58
dictators that you will not hide you know behind the walls you know, or in your residence in Balarus you have to be
52:06
brought to tribunal you, have to be brought to justice on International organizations do this or
52:14
uh also we have uh well-known organization, Red Cross in its mandate, you know to
52:21
work in uh countries where conflicts are going on, we have humanitarian disaster
52:26
in Belarus, it's invisible, it's like silent war against people we for three years we
52:32
are asking Red Cross demand access to political prisoners, they are dying, people are dying there people are being
52:39
Tortured, we have a list of people with cancer, with heart with diabetes, with heart attacks, nobody is taking care of
52:45
them in prisons, it's your mandate if you demand publicly for the world see that you are working that you
52:52
are fulfilling your mandate and make regime to to answer publicly as well maybe you are changing some letters you
52:58
know secretly but it's not job, it's you're not doing this for people, you're doing it just for you know put it on the
53:05
desk just for for tick uh so you know of course it's like
53:11
global things that governments together with parliaments can do, but on personal level when they tell ask you to become
53:18
good parent, good parents for political prisoners it's all it's also not just empty words, it's not just also fatigue
53:24
that yes I'm I I took uh one prisoner uh as God Parents, it means that you know
53:31
it's like your moral and human it's not obligation but you know,
53:39
you will try to contribute into uh this person life you know, when a person in
53:45
prison and he gets a letter from somebody from Parliament from British Parliament maybe we don't know it might
53:52
save his life, because people in prisons because of tortures they very often uh commit suicide because of un unbearable
54:00
conditions and they always like not always they attend to think that the world forgot about them that you know
54:06
people of democratic countries they are not fighting stopped fighting for them and when they get this letter or they
54:13
know from the lawyers that uh this particular parliamentarian replied to his
54:19
family and asked how how they doing maybe they need something or just words
54:24
of support sometimes is enough so it's much easier for this person in prison to survive it's it has very symbolic and
54:32
practical uh meaning so I can list you know this this requests uh and again you
54:39
talked about national identity. National features of Ukraine the same about Belarus we see how uh
54:46
Russia is trying to erase everything Belarusian from our country. there is a process of Russification from abroad,
54:53
it's not seen they're just changing the science uh root uh science from B to
54:59
Russian they um uh they uh restrict
55:04
education of Belarus uh language and Belarus literature in schools, for reading Belarus book you can be detained, so it's slowly,
55:11
it's unnoticeable, it's like creeping occupation and again you know the world
55:17
doesn't notice this, so it's it it gives opportunity for regimes, you know, to to
55:23
to continue and one day we can wake up and to see that ban language is not
55:29
official language anymore only Russian and just as I said in my speech the very
55:34
existence of our country and our nation is at stake and when you in your uh I
55:40
don't know social media uh raise the question of Belarus describe the problems that is exist in our country
55:46
more people will know about this, because you know on some events I met some British parliamentarians and they have
55:53
even known about uh crisis that we are experiencing our country, so information
56:01
is our tool as well so you it doesn't cost a lot it cost one minute five
56:06
minute of your life, but it will help a lot you know to track attention and to highlight
Second, she explained how authoritarianism spreads like a cancer, pointing to the authoritarian networks that exist between figures such as Vladimir Putin and Lukashenka, and the spread of authoritarian strategies across borders. Indeed, Putin’s support was critical to the survival of the Lukashenka regime in 2020. After blatant election rigging had triggered mass protests across the country, it appeared that discontent might spiral to a point where he would be forced from office. Instead, a promise from Putin to send armed support to Lukashenka if protests escalated to a point where his regime was threatened turned the tide and allowed him to cling on to power.
Finally, Tsikhanouskaya explained how authoritarian alliances make regions, and the wider world, less safe. In the case of Russia and Belarus, by keeping Lukashenka in power, Putin maintained a key ally and so sustained his influence in the region, with important implications for his foreign policy ambitions. In Tsikhanouskaya’s words, it was the increasingly strong ties between Lukashenka and Putin, and the latter’s belief that he could rely on unwavering support from Belarus during the invasion of Ukraine, that emboldened him to act. Had the 2020 elections been free and fair, and led to the emergence of a pro-democratic government, the prospects for an invasion of Ukraine being successful would have been lower, which might just have changed Putin’s thinking.
Following the lecture, which was introduced by the Chair of WFD, Richard Graham MP, Tsikhanouskaya discussed the broader implications of these points in the region in greater depth with Dame Melinda Simmons, the British Ambassador to Ukraine between September 2019 and August 2023. This discussion, which was moderated by the Director of CEDAR, Nic Cheeseman, covered a wide range of issues including the importance of women’s leadership – which has been shown to have positive effects on peace building – the ways that democratic countries can work together to counter the growing authoritarian threat, and the particularly challenging impact of autocratization and conflict on young people.
The powerful and practical discussion between Tsikhanouskaya and Dame Simmons provided further proof of the value of bringing together democratic allies across borders, and hence of the State of Democracy in the World Lecture. Plans are already underway for the 2024 Lecture – check the websites of CEDAR and WFD for more information in due course.
