On 28 February the School of Government in association with its Centre for Elections, Democracy, Accountability, and Representation (CEDAR) hosted a US Election 2024 panel event, featuring visiting experts and University of Birmingham scholars.
The panel featured Stephen Bridges, formerly a senior UK diplomat in the United States, Dr Lilliana Mason of Johns Hopkins University, one of America’s top researchers on political polarization, and Professor Andrew Rudalevige of Bowdoin College, a leading expert on the American presidency and executive branch.
Alongside them were three of the School’s own US experts from the Department of Political Science and International Studies (POLSIS): Professor David Dunn, Dr Sarah Bufkin, and Dr Adam Quinn. The panel was chaired by Head of School Professor René Lindstädt.
The panel was attended by a live audience of students, academics, and the public, who were able to participate via an extended Q & A session.
There was discussion around the strength of the economy, a second Trump presidency, the unprecedented and unpredictable nature of Trump’s criminal cases, the candidates’ ages, immigration, political violence, third-party candidates, electoral interference, approaches to foreign policy under Biden and Trump, and threats to democracy.
We see a relatively tight race between Biden and Trump, and there’s very little way of knowing exactly how things will turn out. What we do know is that it’ll likely come down to about 5 states, and the voters in those 5 states will determine the outcome of American democracy going forward.
Dr Lilliana Mason
Dr Lilliana Mason said "This going to be a really important election for the United States and I think for the world. The competition as it stands is between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Of course anything can change, this is going to be a really interesting year, a lot of unexpected events, are likely to occur, and that can change the dynamics at any point. But where we are right now, it will be Joe Biden running against Donald Trump.
"Trump who has promised already out loud and in public to use extraordinary powers of the presidency to attack NATO, to involve himself in international affairs in a way that is contrary to all of the norms in the history of the United States. He has promised to take revenge on his political enemies, he’s called fellow Americans vermin; these are all things that are extremely unsettling and certainly not a part of a functioning democracy.
"So, at the same time, we see a relatively tight race between Biden and Trump, and there’s very little way of knowing exactly how things will turn out. What we do know is that it’ll likely come down to about 5 states, and the voters in those 5 states will determine the outcome of American democracy going forward.”
Professor Andrew Rudalevige said, “There have been a lot of bad sequels – remember the latest Exorcist movie? But the Biden-Trump rematch may be the least popular of them all.
"We know a lot about this election – not least, that both candidates have a high floor and a low ceiling. It will be close. But at this point in the 2020 calendar, there would have been a lot we didn’t know about – the scale of COVID, the eruption of the Black Lives Matter movement.
"The race is not about a national majority of the popular vote – it’s hard to see how Trump wins that. But can he pull another inside straight in the Electoral College? One key will be how the many voters who dislike both candidates break. Will they be more swayed by Trump’s legal woes? By Biden’s age? Will they vote at all?”
To hear the panel in full, listen to the special episode of the Political WorldView podcast available now on SoundCloud, Apple Podcasts, and Spotify
