Dr Adam Quinn looks at the fallout of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and what could come next for the Republican and Democratic election campaigns.
“The assassination attempt against Donald Trump – failed, but a close call – has scrambled the American election season in unpredictable ways. Several Republicans moved instantly to accuse Democrats of whipping up fears that might lead to such an event, because they have portrayed Trump as an existential threat to American democracy who must be stopped at all costs.
This blame-game from the right sits uneasily alongside the fact that everyone knows Trump himself has spent a decade deliberately inflaming the most ferocious political division, and sowing seeds of violence, in the way he talks about his opponents. His campaign has also treated those convicted of involvement in the violent storming of the Capitol building on January 6th, 2021, as heroes and martyrs.
The precise motives of the 20-year-old shooter have not yet been established (he does not seem to have left a manifesto), and as yet any connection to either campaign’s rhetoric is purely speculative. He is reported both to have been a registered Republican, and to have donated a small sum of money to a progressive campaign group, muddying partisan narratives.
Since the event, President Biden has made the sort of remarks one would expect from a normal president, emphasising that votes not bullets are the way Americans should resolve political differences. The nation is now waiting in some suspense to see how Trump, a far from normal candidate, responds to the attempt on his life when he addresses the Republican National Convention this week.
No doubt Trump will be receiving advice as we speak that he could benefit greatly if he were to be seen to rise to the moment, demonstrating a capacity for reflection and growth in response to a close brush with death. He is too far into a political career built on the opposite values to ever be a truly unifying figure. But if he were to at least make gestures in that direction he might still do himself some good at the margins with whatever sliver of the electorate remains open to persuasion. As always, however, even if he were to attempt this approach, a big question would be whether Trump can suppress his natural instincts – which are to stoke division, insecurity, and anger – for any sustained length of time.
Democrats, meanwhile, have been distracted from the urgent business of deciding whether to push President Biden to stand aside and let them replace him as the party’s 2024 candidate at the last minute. This question had been boiling over for the last two weeks since the catastrophic TV debate performance, which renewed widespread concerns about Biden’s age, health, and fitness to serve another four-year term. It was already apparent that a great many current and former Democratic elected officials were frozen between their private knowledge that Biden is too old to run a proper campaign and is likely to lose in November, and their fear of taking personal political damage if they speak out against him at this juncture and in so doing, catch blame for harming the party’s already-shrinking chances of beating Trump. To the extent that the news-dominating assassination story gives them an excuse to change the subject and avoid responsibility for confronting hard choices until it is too late, many seem desperate to grab it.”
Associate Professor in American and International Politics
Dr Adam Quinn's primary area of interest is American grand strategy, especially the relationship between America's relative power in the international system and its internal ideological debates over foreign policy.
