If you work for the part of our university acronymically entitled INLOGOV – for the Institute of Local Government Studies – you wince when hearing today described almost dismissively as a “quiet” or “low-key” Elections Day. It’s not. Indeed, it’s arguably the reverse: one of the exceptional such days when, thanks to the post-2012 switch from police authorities to elected Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs), all English and Welsh registered and photo ID-carrying electors have the civic opportunity/responsibility to cast at least one vote, if not two or three.
By-election in Bournbook & Selly Oak
In Birmingham it’s mainly two, the City Council having switched from near-annual to four-yearly ‘all-out’ elections – today’s single exception being the Bournbrook & Selly Oak ward by-election, following the resignation of Cllr Brigid Jones, former Deputy Leader of the Council and, as it happens, one-time UoB student. All six other West Midlands boroughs have elections of either their whole council (Dudley) or one-third of councillors (Coventry, Sandwell, Solihull, Walsall and Wolverhampton).
Currently Conservative Dudley, with all 72 seats contested following a comprehensive boundary review, could be especially interesting, with three switches of political control already over the past seven years. Labour was the majority party as recently as 2016, and they will be fairly confident of regaining that control.
Dr Jason Lowther and Chris Game, University of Birmingham
Could Labour take Dudley?
Currently Conservative Dudley, with all 72 seats contested following a comprehensive boundary review, could be especially interesting, with three switches of political control already over the past seven years. Labour was the majority party as recently as 2016, and they will be fairly confident of regaining that control. Otherwise, why would Sir Keir Starmer have chosen it for Labour’s national campaign launch? Do you recall Sir Keir’s big announcement? One-year finance settlements can’t provide the financial stability councils need; “We will introduce three-year settlements to allow councils greater certainty so they can plan properly.” If it does happen, remember: you heard it in Dudley first.
Hope for the Greens in Solihull
Solihull too, normally overlooked in these election mini-previews, deserves a mention, with the Green Party having been the main opposition to the Conservatives, nowadays quite comfortably, for a full decade now. With only a third of seats being contested, it’s not about to supplant Mid-Suffolk’s achievement of becoming, last May, the Green Party’s first overall majority council anywhere outside Australia, but it seemed worth a short paragraph.
For the Mayor (Andy Street) the tricky survey result is that when asked in the Centre for Cities opinion poll if they could name some of Mayor Street’s actual policies from his seven years in office, barely 10% of West Midlanders managed to recall even one.
Dr Jason Lowther and Chris Game, University of Birmingham
Can Mayor Street hold on?
Birmingham meanwhile shares almost certainly England’s most keenly anticipated and scrutinised election, for the West Midlands Metro Mayor, together with the election of our West Midlands Police & Crime Commissioner (PCC). Home Office Ministers tried to add to the WM Mayor’s responsibilities those of our regional PCC – as the fellow (Labour) mayors of Greater Manchester (Andy Burnham) and West Yorkshire (Tracy Brabin) have. It was an insufficiently prepared proposal which, properly presented, could have prompted a useful public cost-benefit debate about the potential value of having a separate elected PCC role. As it was, PCC Simon Foster was able to claim that the Home Secretary had a “closed mind” on the issue, the judicial review judge reckoned the case for a more joined-up approach to crime prevention was “left entirely unexplained”, and we consequently have the opportunity to re-elect Foster, from a six-candidate-field, for a second term of office.
WM Mayor Street, meanwhile, is making the most of his impressively high visibility and recognisability – far higher than opinion poll respondents’ council leaders or even MPs – and his two-term record. In the West Midlands, 65% of respondents could name the Mayor compared to 45% naming their MP and 20% their local council leader. For the Mayor the tricky survey result is that, when asked in the Centre for Cities opinion poll if they could name some of Mayor Street’s actual policies from his seven years in office, barely 10% of West Midlanders managed to recall even one. Which seemed tough, considering he has plenty, but it contrasted strikingly with his friendly rival, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, with over a third of Manchester respondents able to name at least one of his. And could it just prove telling?
