The West Midlands will be hardest hit by Trump automotive tariffs, losing £6.2 billion GDP by 2030
Dr Matt Lyons and Dr Huanjia Ma from City-REDI reflect on the impact the Trump automotive tariffs will have on the West Midlands.
On ‘liberation day’, automotive tariffs announced by President Donald Trump, Dr Lyons and Dr Ma said:
“Today (Wednesday 2nd April) has been designated as ‘liberation day’ by the Trump administration with second round of tariffs on international imports to the US expected to be announced. This follows the 25% tariff placed on imported vehicles and automotive parts, coming into effect tomorrow (Thursday 3rd April).
“These automotive tariffs are estimated to cost the UK £9.8 billion in GDP between 2025 and 2030, putting 137,000 jobs at risk. According to our analysis, the West Midlands, an important hub for automotive manufacturers and their supply chain, is expected to take the sizeable brunt of this, losing £6.2 billion in GDP, 62% of the total impact on the UK.
“The West Midlands is home to Jaguar Land Rover, Aston Martin, Changan Automotive and a large cluster of suppliers. In a 2023 study 22 of the 50 largest automotive firms in the region were already found to be at risk of insolvency due to poor liquidity ratios.
“The West Midlands is projected to suffer the most severe impact, with an estimated -£6.2 billion decline in GDP (62% of the total impact) and -£4.6 billion loss in gross value added (GVA). The North West is anticipated to lose -£2.1 billion in GDP and -£1.8 billion in GVA (21%) of the total. Together, these two regions will see 85% of the economic impact.
“The impact of a decision made an ocean away specifically on the West Midlands cannot be understated. Rather than a shock, the West Midlands automotive sector could face a sudden and catastrophic earthquake.”
Notes for editors
Notes for editors
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