Women's Risk Needs Assessment tool effectively predicts likelihood of reoffending, research finds

The first comprehensive study to validate the Women's Risk Needs Assessment tool (WRNA) in the UK, has shown it effectively predicts reoffending risks, and support needs for women in the justice system.

The WRNA was originally developed in the US, as a gender-responsive instrument to identify the role of gender-specific needs that lead to women offending, as well as strengths that can be protective. It contains almost 200 questions across 24 sections, on issues like abuse, past trauma, and addiction to assess the risks of reoffending. It uses a three-part scoring methodology to generate risk classifications and treatment recommendations, providing insights into the root causes of reoffending and how women in the criminal justice system can be supported to prevent it.

Today (19^th August), the Women, Crime & Justice Group at the University of Birmingham, funded and supported by The JABBS Foundation for Women and Girls, has published the first in-depth assessment of how effective the WRNA is for women in the UK criminal justice system.

The study found that the WRNA is effective at identifying the strongest predictors for reoffending and forecasting the likelihood and frequency of reoffending.

Simon Pemberton, Professor of Social Policy and Criminology at the University of Birmingham and director of the Women, Crime & Justice Group, said: “It is well documented that there is an overrepresentation of women with complex needs and trauma in the British criminal justice system. As such, there has been increased recognition among policymakers and the criminal justice sector of the need for a gender-responsive assessment tool. However, traditional risk assessments have been predominantly developed and validated on men, failing to capture the multifaceted pathways that lead women into criminal justice involvement.

“With the government working to reduce numbers in overcrowded prisons, using an effective assessment tool will be crucial to building an accurate plan of how we can reduce reoffending and better support often vulnerable women.”

506 women from three women’s organisations across seven sites completed WRNA assessments, which the researchers linked to data from the Police National Computer records for a 12-month follow-up analysis.

The researchers found there was a positive correlation between overall WRNA scores and conviction counts, with significant differences between the high and low risk groups. The higher WRNA scores significantly predicted both the probability of reoffending and offending frequency among those who reoffended.

Professor Pemberton concluded: “This is the first time that the WRNA has been meaningfully evaluated in the UK. Our previous research has shown that interventions designed specifically for women are up to 42% more effective in reducing reoffending than gender-neutral interventions. Now, we have also found that a gender-specific assessment tool can provide valuable information to inform more effective interventions to prevent women from reoffending and improve health and well-being outcomes.

“Our findings confirm the WRNA's utility as a gender-responsive assessment tool with robust dual predictive capacity. While there are areas that could do with some improvement, these results establish an empirical foundation for implementing the WNRA within the British criminal justice system.”

The WRNA is being used by the Effective Women’s Centres (EWC) Partnership, a research collaboration involving seven women’s centres, the University of Birmingham, and The JABBS Foundation for Women and Girls. A new £3 million funding agreement between The JABBS Foundation for Women and Girls and the Henry Smith Foundation will scale up the EWC Partnership and support the roll out of WRNA to more women’s centres.