Professor Nando Sigona explains what may have led to the mass migration of 50,000 people from Morocco to Spain in a few short days.
The city of Ceuta from the sea.
On the Ceuta migration event, Professor Sigona said:
“What happened in Ceuta is difficult to understand as an ordinary migration event. According to provisional Spanish estimates, around 50,000 people crossed from Morocco in approximately 24 hours, and more than 70 died. The scale and speed were unprecedented. Most were Moroccans, many apparently from areas near Ceuta, crossing by swimming or using improvised flotation devices. This makes the emphasis by Spain and the EU on trafficking networks unconvincing.
“Information about the Spanish Supreme Court ruling restricting Spain’s capacity to return people may explain why they moved, but not how tens of thousands assembled so quickly near one of the region’s most heavily controlled borders. While there is, as yet, no evidence that Morocco organised the movement directly, the temporary relaxation of upstream controls and a targeted social media campaign may have played a crucial role. The episode followed Spain’s rapprochement with Algeria and discussions of the contested status of Western Sahara. It may also have enabled Rabat to align itself with Trump’s wider campaign against Sánchez without requiring direct US involvement. At the same time, it demonstrated that Spain cannot control the enclaves alone and remains dependent on Moroccan cooperation, while Morocco maintains longstanding sovereignty claims over both Ceuta and Melilla.
“The response of EU member states exposes competing ideas of solidarity. Some have treated Ceuta as an unprecedented breach of an EU external border and supported Spain. Italy and Denmark have publicly blamed Spanish migration policy, while others have demanded tougher controls. Italy has been particularly opportunistic, misrepresenting Spain’s regularisation programme and rapidly adopting Trump’s narrative of Spanish ‘failure’ to score political points domestically. With the government under pressure from a new right-wing party, this position also enables it to realign itself with Washington after months of tensions. Yet Spain rapidly restored control, returned the large majority of those who crossed and prevented onward movement.
“The emergency meeting of EU interior ministers will reinforce a migration and border-security framing. Publicly, the EU is likely to compartmentalise Ceuta from Western Sahara and avoid blaming Morocco, whose cooperation on migration governance remains essential. Privately, different conversations will take place through diplomatic and intelligence channels. The likely outcome is stronger border controls and perhaps further externalisation and EU investment in Morocco, while the decisions that enabled the movement - and the deaths of more than 70 people caught in geopolitical games - receive far less scrutiny and escape accountability.”
For more information and media inquiries, please contact Ellie Hail (e.hail@bham.ac.uk), Communications Officer, University of Birmingham, on +44 (0)7966 311 409. Out-of-hours, please call +44 (0) 121 414 2772.
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Chair of International Migration and Forced Displacement
Professor Nando Sigona is a sociologist with research and teaching experience in migration, refugee and ethnic studies. He is also the Director of the Institute for Research into Superdiversity (IRiS).
