On the ongoing US/Venezuela crisis, Andrew Nickson said:
“Everyone is waiting to see what will happen next, following the Trump administration's removal of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. President Trump has promised a ‘safe, proper and judicious transition’, but this will be extremely difficult to implement.
“The major opposition figures in Venezuela have been living in exile and are socially distinct, coming from a higher social class and carrying limited support from the general population. Sending in the US military would encourage armed resistance by well-organised supporters of Maduro and the various organised crime groups (OCGs) within Venezuela, many with strong regional links.
“This intervention is likely to lead to a resurgence of armed insurgency last seen in the 1960s and 1970s, with the difference that contemporary actors will be far better trained and equipped than before, as well as interconnected between countries. So, in the medium to long term, there is a real danger of increased political instability in Latin America.”
