Megatrends in the West Midlands

This project examines megatrends in the West Midlands. Megatrends are trends that could have significant economic consequences and scarring effects for vulnerable groups and places as a result of impacts on human, social, physical and natural capital.

There is a gap in policy makers’ understanding of whether these trends will continue, altering the structure of society and business in the longer term. 

This project examines these impacts and trends, developing future scenarios in greater depth in order to identify, along with policy makers, those policies which may be more effective in restarting the economy, encouraging recovery and creating long-term renewal by encouraging positive trends and mitigating negative effects.

 View the full report.

Megatrends in the West Midlands

Find out more about the Megatrends in the West Midlands project.

What are megatrends?

Transcript

COVID-19 has forever transformed the UK and the West Midlands. Anew project from WMREDI University of Birmingham investigates the impacts of megatrends in the West Midlands.

What are megatrends? Megatrends are major movements, patterns or trends that are having a transformative impact on business, economy, society, cultures and personal lives. These trends existed before the impact of COVID-19 but have been accelerated by the pandemic. Some examples of mega trends include hybrid working, digitization and online shopping.

Each of these trends has a profound impact on the West Midlands—emptying our cities, impacting our transport systems, and making us need to rethink the world of business and how it operates. These trends also have varying impacts on different sections of society. Whilst the move to working from home means many service sectors’ [workers] no longer need to travel to the workplaces each day, people who work in manufacturing still need to be on the shop floor. The rapid increase in digitization has enabled these changes, but there are many groups who have no access to the internet or a computer. Online shopping is forcing city centres to examine what function high streets should have and accelerated the move to shopping experiences to attract footfall.

Using WMREDI’s input-output model, this project sets out four scenarios for the West Midlands:

  1. A ghost town in which our cities face a steep decline.
  2. The roaring twenties in which our cities make a robust recovery.
  3. The city playground in which our cities are transformed into urban centres of experiences and leisure, but other sectors (like manufacturing) decline.
  4. Worker bees, in which our cities have robust employment growth in services and manufacturing, but a decline in retail and hospitality.

The effects of COVID-19 are playing out now as these megatrends surge for our society. The future of cities in the West Midlands will depend upon policymakers’ ability to reimagine city centres.

Provocations

Podcasts

Megatrends in the West Midlands - Future Business District

With Johannes Read, City-REDI/WMREDI, Mike Best, Turley and Kevin Johnson, Urban Communications.
Download the Future Business District podcast transcript.

 

Megatrends in the West Midlands - Urban responses to pandemic and economic shocks

With Liam O'Farrell, University of Sheffield and Claire Spencer, WMCA.
Download the Urban Responses podcast transcript.

 

Megatrends in the West Midlands - Business and Operations

With Alice Pugh, City-REDI / WMREDI and Henrietta Brealey, CEO, Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce
Download the Business and Operations podcast transcript.

 

Megatrends in the West Midlands - Future mobility

With Dr Magda Cepeda Zorrilla, City-REDI / WMREDI and Mike Waters, Director of Policy, Strategy & Innovation, Transport for West Midlands
Download Future Mobility podcast transcript.

Megatrends in the West Midlands - Work and skills

With Dr Abigail Taylor, City-REDI / WMREDI and Dr Fiona Aldridge, Head of Insight - Economic Delivery, Skills and Communities, West Midlands Combined Authority.
Download the Work and Training podcast transcript.

 

You can also listen to the podcasts on Spotify.

Blogs

Megatrends in the West Midlands: Future Business District Podcast
City-REDI Blog, Ellie Macdonald, November 2022

Megatrends in the West Midlands: Generations
City-REDI Blog, Liam O’Farrell, November 2022

Megatrends in the West Midlands: Health and Urban Greenspace
City-REDI Blog, Ros McDermot, October 2022

Megatrends in the West Midlands: Local Living
City-REDI Blog, Gina Hunt - October 2022

Megatrends in the West Midlands: Just City
City-REDI Blog, Liam O'Farrell - October 2022

Megatrends in the West Midlands: Urban Responses to Pandemics and Economic Shocks
City-REDI Blog, Liam O'Farrell - July 2022

Megatrends in the West Midlands: Business Models and Operations
City-REDI Blog, Alice Pugh - July 2022

Megatrends in the West Midlands: Future Mobility
City-REDI Blog, Dr Madga Cepeda Zorrilla - August 2022

Perspectives on the Future of Work and Training
City-REDI Blog, Dr Abigail Taylor - August 2022