How context shapes skills at 18: comparative lessons for the UK

The project draws on perspectives from comparative education and comparative political economy, combined with empirical analysis, to develop its typology of education systems. It identifies different configurations of education systems and contextual factors associated with high average levels of skills and low skills inequality at age 15 and amongst cohorts aged 18 to 20 years old in 2023. Moreover, it demonstrates how system characteristics combine to generate successful outcomes.

Overarching research question:

• What student, school, system and contextual factors explain cross-country variations in the levels and distributions of literacy and numeracy skills, and what are the most appropriate comparators for English policymakers to borrow from?

Subsidiary research questions:

• What are the common and distinguishing characteristics associated with different education systems and how have these converged or diverged over time?
• What are the effects of different system types and characteristics on levels and distributions of literacy and numeracy skills across countries and how do these levels and distributions change during upper secondary education?
• What are the configurations of system and contextual factors associated with positive skills outcomes at country level? How do these factors interact; and what different pathways lead to improvement in skills, and reductions in skills inequalities?

Tarek Mostafa (PI): Associate Professor in Education and Public Policy at the University of Birmingham. Tarek has extensive expertise in international educational assessments and in quantitative methods. He was previously a policy analyst at the OECD (PISA programme). He was the sole analyst and author of PISA 2018 Volume VI focusing on student global competencies. He also authored (with Pauline Givord) the PISA 2018 Volume II on equity in educational performance and wellbeing. While at the OECD, Tarek led: the development of the PISA 2022 ICT framework, the analysis of teacher job satisfaction data, the analysis of data on science teaching strategies, in addition to leading on key engagement activities with policy-makers, government and public agencies. For more information about Tarek’s work visit: www.tarekmostafa.net

Andy Green (Co-I): Professor of Comparative Social Science at UCL-IOE and director of the ESRC Centre for Learning and Life Chances. Andy was co-director of the UK Government-funded Wider Benefits of Learning Centre (1999-2004). He has completed several funded comparative projects using PISA and PIAAC data to explore system effects on skills acquisition in upper secondary education and training and has published extensively on a range of social and education topics. He was named among the top 2 percent of the world’s most cited scientists in the recent study by Stanford University (2021).

Rachel Marks (Co-I): Associate Professor in Mathematics Education at UCL-IOE. Rachel has extensive experience in conducting research across mathematics education, using both quantitative and qualitative approaches. She is currently joint Principal Investigator for the Education Endowment Foundation funded project "Effective Approaches to Teaching Mathematics in Key Stages 3 and 4: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis". She has also worked on an international study of high-performing countries and has led a national survey of curriculum resourcing in primary mathematics, funded by The Nuffield Foundation.

Jeremy Hodgen (Expert advisor): Professor of Mathematics Education at the University of Nottingham. He has published widely on mathematics education, teacher education, assessment, and international comparisons. His Nuffield Foundation funded reports examining participation in post-16 mathematics have been highly influential in policy on studying mathematics to age 18. He has been a member of the Royal Society's Advisory Committee on Mathematics Education (ACME) and Chair of the British Society for Research into Learning Mathematics (BSRLM) and is currently a member of ACME's Post-16 Contact Group. His studies have framed the current debate around mathematics in post-compulsory education in England.

Fiona Victory (Research Assistant): Fiona completed her PhD in Comparative Education at UCL-IOE in 2023. Her PhD thesis is titled: The changing medium of instruction policies of state-schools in recently formed states: a comparative analysis. In her PhD research she used and developed innovative comparative research methodologies based on QCA to explore school language policy as a strategy for state-building.