From Infrastructure to the Economy: the evidence behind calls for urgent climate action

Climate change is causing serious impacts on the UK.

This is the headline finding of the latest iteration of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment published this week. Produced every five years as a statuary requirement of the 2008 Climate Change Act, the assessment synthesises the most up-to-date evidence on the range of risks facing the UK from climate change, and the ‘urgency’ for additional policy needed to address them.

The report is used by parliamentarians to develop proposals for new climate change adaptation legislation, as such the assessment requires a response from government and is subsequently used to set the agenda for the latest National Adaptation Programme.

Global warming has accelerated since the previous risk assessment in 2022. Climate change continues to cause serious impacts on the UK and the risks are now higher than that seen in previous assessments. This is based on new evidence of accelerating changes in climate, evidence of potential increases in exposure and/or vulnerability, and a lack of adaptation progress.

Our expertise

Given the acknowledged expertise of University of Birmingham, our academics have acted as consultants on all four UK Climate Change Risk Assessments completed to date. In the latest assessment, led by the UK Met Office, our academics have led on four (out of seven) key chapters of the underpinning technical report:

Dr David Jarosweski led on chapter one, Methods, and has played a pivotal role in evolving the methodology which underpins the entire technical report upon which CCRA4 is based. Importantly, his innovations included the introduction of a new a ‘Critical’ category in the assessment to emphasise the highest urgency risks for adaptation action.

Professor Gregor Leckebusch led chapter two, State of the Climate, summarising how human driven climate change is causing warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers in the UK. The chapter also identifies how compound extremes, where impacts are amplified by multiple hazards occurring simultaneously or in close succession, are increasing. Hot, dry summers are expected to occur more frequently, reducing river flows and worsening drought impacts.

Dr Emma Ferranti, Dr Daniel Donaldson, Dr Sarah Greenham, Dr Xilin Xia, Professor Andrew Quinn, and Nick Cork led on chapter six, Infrastructure, highlighting the now critical need for adaptation action to sustain the delivery of infrastructure services from interdependencies within other infrastructure systems. With energy, communications networks, transport, and water systems fundamental to a functioning UK society, they expertly considered risks of a warming climate to the infrastructure sector.

Professors Matthew Cole and Rob Elliot led on chapter seven, Economy, where they called for critical action to maintain; the UK’s macroeconomic performance and stability, the physical assets of UK businesses (domestic and overseas), financial institutions and the financial system.

Finally, I supported the overall report both as a contributing author to the Executive Summary and methods chapters as well as my broader scientific assurance role. I have the rare privilege of being involved in all assessments since the introduction of the Climate Change Act in 2008 and am pleased to have had the opportunity to use this experience sacross the whole report. and am proud to have used this experience to provide scientific assurance across the whole report.

Risks are increasing

Overall, the fourth assessment reviewed a total of 41 key risks and two opportunities to the UK. Taking account of all evidence, we concluded that the magnitude of impact from the risks are higher than that in previous assessments. Indeed, nearly two thirds of the risks are assessed as needing increased adaptation action to manage potential impacts from climate change.

Fundamentally, the UK’s current adaptation plans are not keeping pace with climate change.