Comparisons are often made with the US invasion of Panama in January 1989, when American forces captured Manuel Noriega. But Venezuela is not Panama. It is vastly larger, far richer in natural resources, and firmly embedded in South America, a region that, despite internal political tensions and occasional conflicts, has largely avoided major interstate wars. For regional leaders, the uncomfortable question now is how that peace can be preserved in the face of an unrestrained and openly imperial US foreign policy.
In the past, efforts to manage and contain US power relied heavily on regional legal and institutional frameworks. The Organisation of American States and the 1947 Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance were intended to provide collective security and to restrain unilateral intervention. Today, however, these mechanisms appear increasingly hollow, rendered ineffective by Trump’s open disregard for international law and established norms.
As a result, issues that once seemed unthinkable are moving to the centre of regional debate.
Brazil and Argentina developed nuclear programmes during the Cold War but ultimately abandoned weapons ambitions in favour of regional cooperation and non-proliferation commitments. But now, discussions of deterrence, ranging from renewed interest in nuclear programmes to closer strategic alignment with China, are likely to gain traction.
Ironically, this would amount to a backlash against Trump’s stated ambition of reasserting imperial control over the region.
Some may argue that this is precisely what China is counting on: that an aggressive and coercive US approach will ultimately prove counterproductive, accelerating China’s efforts to expand its influence in Latin America through multilateralism, economic cooperation, and investment rather than overt force. China could position itself as an independent and strategically indispensable partner, offering an alternative to US dominance rather than merely operating within it.
