Prediction, predation, politics

Project Lead: Anthony Pickles

Prediction, Predation, Politics realises the first qualitative study of gambling on political outcomes (e.g., who will win the election) and the resulting 'prediction markets'. Set amid profound democratic and political crises within the UK and US, surging political betting markets convert ideological beliefs, historical trends, and national moods into prices, turning political understanding into a game.

Through interviews, participant observation, and ‘netnography’, I study the market-makers, bookies, bloggers, academics, politicos, punters, and arbitragers who co-construct expertise in political markets around volatile currents of opinion, interests, and insider knowledge. I am assessing the implications of this gamification of the future, encompassing moral and practical issues alongside questions of political thought, and developing a framework for examining the intersection of politics and market economy. Publications and public dissemination uncover how political betting during our snowballing ecological, democratic, and economic crises enacts a profoundly financialised anxiety about our fragile future.